Friday Estimates: Americans Still Hate The Middle East; Shrek Ahead Of Sex And The City And Prince Of Persia

on Saturday, May 29, 2010   8 comments

I can not wait to get to New York and settle down in one room, where I will stay for weeks at a time. All this moving around (got back to Virginia from Pennsylvania last night) is driving me crazy! I want to be blogging full time and just haven't been able to, so I'm sorry. You know who else doesn't like traveling? Moviegoing Americans. This week, two new movies set in the Middle East opened in theaters, and neither is really blowing up. (No pun intended.) While the box office performances of Sex And The City 2 and Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time are far from embarrassing, expectations were high, and both films are disappointing in their own ways.  As a box office analyst, I've never been very fond of sandy Middle Eastern settings. It just doesn't sell that well at the American box office, and yesterday's Friday Estimates support this assertion. Hop inside for the numbers and some super quick notes.

Sex And The City 2 earned $14.5 million on Thursday and then an additional $13.5 million on Friday. We're already seeing how frontloaded this "event" is going to be. Over the next three days, the comedy should pull in another $32 million for a five-day opening of $60 million. Considering the original Sex And The City earned $57 million in its first three day weekend, I'm not that impressed by the performance of SATC2. In what should be a massively inflated weekend, SATC2 is doing just fine, but I was expecting numbers closer to $80 million. This won't outgross the first.

Back in third place, Prince Of Persia was even more disappointing. The Jerry Bruckheimer production grossed a sad $9.5 million on Friday, and while it should recover a bit over the rest of the weekend, it doesn't look like Disney has found their new Pirates franchise. Still, I have hope that Prince can find some legs at the box office due to its over-the-top fun, Summer-blockbuster style. For now, though, it looks like the Jake Gyllenhaal picture will have to settle for a four day weekend of $40 million.

Likely to come in first place for the weekend is Shrek Forever After. This film has been easy to write off, since its opening weekend was so disappointing, but the ogre still has some drawing power left in him.  Shrek Forever After earned $10.8 million on Friday, which should lead to a $50 million four-day weekend. That figure reminds me of 2004's The Incredibles, which opened with $70 million, then fell to $50 million in its second weekend on its way to $251 million. Shrek won't have the benefit of Thanksgiving weekend, so it's not likely to reach those heights, but a $225 million domestic finish is seeming likely. Full numbers are below.

Friday Estimates for May 28, 2010
RankMovie Friday Gross Estimated 4-Day Weekend
1Sex And The City 2 $13.5 million $45.5 million
2Shrek Forever After $10.8 million $50 million
3Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time $9.5 million $40 million
4Iron Man 2 $4 million $19 million
5Robin Hood $2.7 million $12 million
6Letters To Juliet $1.8 million $7 million
7Just Wright $625,000 $2.6 million
8MacGruber $425,000 $1.9 million

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DVD/Blu-Ray Sales: Legion Leads A Trio Of Movies Targeting Men; Avatar Unstoppable

on Wednesday, May 26, 2010   5 comments

Ah, these posts are much more manageable on a weekly basis.  I'm glad that both me and The-Numbers are caught up!  This week, three new movies hit the DVD Sales Chart, and given the fact that none of them were especially big box office hits, Legion, Edge Of Darkness, and Daybreakers all did pretty well. (Also, it's kind of interesting that each of these movies deals with themes of light and darkness. Just a side note.) Over on the Blu-Ray chart, Avatar continued its complete domination, and the sales data continued to prove my assertion that Blu-Ray is a heavily male-driven market. Check out my notes along with the charts after the jump.

DVD/Blu-Ray Sales Notes:

-Legion earned a mediocre $40.2 million in theaters, so it's opening week on the home market was actually pretty impressive. Legion sold 456,528 DVDs for $8.2 million in revenue, as well as an estimated 190,620 Blu-Rays.  Not bad for a crappy movie about supernatural/spiritual warfare.

-Edge of Darkness did a bit better than Legion at the box office, earning $43.3 million, but a bit worse on the home market. The revenge-themed Mel Gibson "comeback" sold 342,852 units for sales of $5.8 million, and then an estimated 131,670 Blu-Ray copies.

-Daybreakers also had a solid week on the home market. The vampire picture grossed just $30.1 million in theaters, so first week DVD sales of 302,678 copies and $6 million in revenue aren't too bad. It also sold a strong 120,030 on Blu-Ray.  Like the two other movies I've addressed, this performance isn't especially incredible in its own right, but it's strong in comparison with the film's theatrical run.

-For Legion, Edge Of Darkness, and Daybreakers, Blu-Ray sales numbers represented a whopping 30% of the number of DVDs purchased, which is another clear sign that the home market is gradually moving towards Blu-Ray.  It is also notable that each of these films targets a male audience, and as I discussed last week, Blu-Ray sales (and DVD sales as well) appear to be heavily driven by male consumers.  The sci-fi/action/revenge flicks engaged males and saw good sales as a result.

-It almost seems silly to mention Avatar anymore, considering I've had something to say about it every week since December! However, it's mighty power simply can't be denied. Avatar continues its amazing run, moving yet another 449,269 DVDs for overall sales of 6.8 million copies and $115.4 million in revenue. As if that's not impressive enough, add on the mind-blowing Blu-Ray figure of 4.6 million copies for a truly ridiculous performance. I would note, though, that I think Wal-Mart's lack of reported sales figures is skewing things a bit, though.  I simply don't believe that over 40% of the total number of Avatar copies sold on the home market were Blu-Ray. I would guess that the DVD total is a bit understated.

-The TV-on-DVD performer of the week is Daria: The Complete Series. The MTV cartoon sold 79,984 copies $3.9 million.  Let's not get too excited, though. The apathetic Daria wouldn't approve.

-The re-releases of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 on Blu-Ray have proved very successful for Disney. Now, they've re-released both films on DVD as well and picked up a nice $5.4 million. Considering how little work Disney needs to put into a re-release, it must be nice picking up an easy paycheck like that.

-It happened a while ago, but I'd like to officially congratulate Up for crossing the 10 million threshold!

-Take a look at The Blind Side's DVD sales. 4.7 million copies?! $75 million in revenue?! If you need proof that most Americans want simple movies with traditional values and happy endings, look no further. It doesn't matter that a movie like Kick-Ass will dominate online buzz for months, the numbers for a movie like The Blind Side don't lie.

DVD Sales for the Week Ending May 16, 2010
RankTitleUnits this Week% ChangeTotal UnitsSales this WeekTotal SalesWeeks in Release
1 Legion 456,528 -.-% 456,528 $8,212,939 $8,212,939 1
2 Avatar 449,269 -22.7% 6,757,655 $8,392,210 $115,482,705 4
3 Edge of Darkness 342,852 -.-% 342,852 $5,825,055 $5,825,055 1
4 Daybreakers 302,678 -.-% 302,678 $6,050,533 $6,050,533 1
5 Tooth Fairy 167,363 -63.2% 622,430 $2,843,497 $10,638,795 2
6 It's Complicated 154,900 -56.3% 1,220,361 $2,631,751 $20,733,933 3
7 Toy Story 143,304 -.-% - $2,708,102 - 707
8 Toy Story 2 136,730 -.-% - $2,672,689 - 478
9 Iron Man 120,653 70.0% 9,361,386 $1,505,291 $165,843,057 85
10 The Blind Side 119,793 -62.9% 4,701,648 $1,496,215 $74,819,856 8
11 Sherlock Holmes 82,632 -21.7% 2,136,449 $1,032,074 $35,450,392 7
12 Daria: The Complete Series 79,984 -.-% 79,984 $3,918,416 $3,918,416 1
13 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 79,801 -22.0% 3,698,437 $803,596 $61,261,178 7
14 Leap Year 75,784 -52.6% 235,627 $1,363,354 $4,238,930 2
15 The Princess and the Frog 70,351 49.7% 3,824,662 $984,210 $59,812,792 9
16 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 60,673 -11.4% 6,632,679 $1,061,171 $149,449,157 8
17 Crazy Heart 48,301 -28.8% 591,049 $868,935 $11,057,860 4
18 Nine 43,416 -41.5% 117,672 $781,054 $2,116,919 2
19 The Lovely Bones 41,955 8.4% 342,032 $730,856 $6,233,242 4
20 Alice in Wonderland 38,942 30.9% - $700,567 - 633
21 Up 38,577 56.2% 10,394,031 $619,257 $175,180,001 27
22 The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 37,572 -21.4% 182,252 $675,920 $3,278,713 3
23 2012 29,144 16.6% 2,731,904 $586,669 $47,065,982 11
24 The Descent: Part 2 28,990 -32.9% 117,905 $632,272 $2,543,055 3
25 Glee, Volume One: Road to Sectionals 25,303 -25.0% - $455,201 $20,298,546 20
26 The Dark Knight 21,035 -.-% 14,508,375 $221,751 $233,734,973 75
27 Brothers 20,519 -21.8% 465,063 $338,358 $7,971,260 8
28 Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 19,605 -7.6% 1,025,470 $421,311 $18,553,106 10
29 The Adventures of Milo and Otis 18,249 -.-% - $136,685 - 559
30 Ponyo 16,811 -.-% 657,074 $235,186 $11,288,494 11


Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending May 16, 2010
RankTitleUnits this WeekTotal Units
1 Avatar 300,000 4,650,000
2 Legion 190,620 190,620
3 Edge Of Darkness 131,670 131,670
4 Daybreakers 120,030 120,030
5 Iron Man 52,500 -
6 Toy Story 42,300 764,739
7 Toy Story 2 36,420 679,239
8 The Dark Knight 31,980 -
9 Sherlock Holmes 30,270 819.020
10 Star Trek 27,300 -
11 Saving Private Ryan 21,390 113,830
12 It's Complicated 18,840 131,210
13 The Blind Side 18,510 721,645
14 Tooth Fairy 16,440 65,160
15 The Princess And The Frog 16,410 712,000
16 Bram Stoker's Dracula 15,630 15,630
17 Up 15,060 -
18 2012 13,230 1,644,500
19 New Moon 11,940 1,190,590
20 Super Troopers 11,130 11,130

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New And News: Studios Suddenly Seek Sandy Settings For Sexy Sequels And Special Effects

on Monday, May 24, 2010   10 comments

So, you know how I love to make up super punny titles that use the names of the movies I'm writing about for my articles on TBOJ?  Today, as I was trying to think of a title for New And News, I thought it would be fun to mash up the titles of the week's new movies, Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time and Sex And The City 2.  The resulting title was Sex And The City: The Sands Of Time, and given the age of the SATC women, that just seemed inappropriate.  I came up with another title, got to writing the post, and voila! We have another good old edition of New And News, in which I preview the above movies, and then show you some of the past week's most interesting news stories. This week, we've got information on Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, a new Cinderella, Pixar shorts, rising ticket prices, and on-demand movie viewing.  Enjoy!

New:

Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time (Disney) - 3,500 theaters - Reviews
Set in the mystical lands of Persia, a rogue prince reluctantly joins forces with a mysterious princess and together, they race against dark forces to safeguard an ancient dagger capable of releasing the Sands of Time - a gift from the gods that can reverse time and allow its possessor to rule the world.
Sometimes, I see trailers for an action movie that looks pretty bad, and it makes me angry.  Other times, I see them, and I can't wait to go watch them in theaters! In Prince Of Persia's case, I'm feeling the latter.  Maybe it's the surprisingly good reviews, or the fact that Jerry Bruckheimer productions are always fun to watch (Deja Vu? Awesome), but I'm actually quite excited for this film.  Disney has been pushing this $150 million film hard, clearly hoping to launch a new Pirates-style franchise out of it, but it has a lot working against it.  First off, people did not respond well to Jake Gyllenhaal's casting as the titular Persian.  Second, this is a video-game adaptation with a silly storyline, and these video-game movies have historically been disappointments both critically and financially.  Third, this movie is set in the sandy Middle East, a setting which is never as appealing to audiences as cityscapes or lush greenery. Fourth and finally, people just don't think that Prince Of Persia looks all that good, and that's the biggest negative it has on its plate.  Prince Of Persia will have to perform spectacularly to earn back its massive production and advertising budgets, and if there's one thing that will help it on the way to profitability, it's the sense of fun that surrounds it!  Far too often, studios forget that going to the movies is about having escapist fun, despite the fact that audiences demonstrate time and time again that they are usually looking for nothing more than some laughs, some excitement, and a happy ending when they go to the theater.  If Prince Of Persia can open well (I'm seeing something around $60 million) and garner positive word of mouth, it has a solid shot at $200 million and a potential franchise.  It's an uphill (updune?) battle, though.

Sex And The City 2 (Warner Bros) - 3,400 theaters - Reviews
The fun, the fashion, the friendship: "Sex and the City 2" brings it all back and more as Carrie, Samantha, Charlotte and Miranda take another bite out of The Big Apple--and beyond--carrying on with their busy lives and loves. What happens after you say "I do"? Life is everything the ladies ever wished it to be, but it wouldn't be "Sex and the City" if life didn't hold a few more surprises--this time in the form of a glamorous, sun-drenched adventure that whisks the women away from New York to one of the most luxurious, exotic and vivid places on earth, where the party never ends and there's something mysterious around every corner. It's an escape that comes exactly at the right moment for the four friends, who are finding themselves in--and fighting against--the traditional roles of marriage, motherhood and more. After all, sometimes you just have to get away with the girls.
Back in 2008, Sex And The City, an adaptation of the popular HBO TV show, stunned analysts when it opened to a massive $57 million on its way to $152 million.  Sex And The City managed to capture the pop culture zeitgeist, and its performance effectively demonstrated the buying power of women at the box office.  Warner Brothers and HBO didn't waste any time getting a sequel into production.  Once again, I think the Moroccan setting isn't going to help the film's box office, especially because New York City is such a prevalent part of the series, but this film is almost a guaranteed success.  The production budget is reported at $65 million, and advertising has been extremely strong, partly because of the studio, but mostly because of female-driven entertainment media, which simply wants to write about Sex And The City 2.  The lewd comedy has packaged itself as an event for all females, which will contribute to a big opening weekend and a frontloaded run.  Right now, I'm seeing a $75 million opening (4-day opening, that is, due to a strange Thursday release) on the way to a $150 million finish. 

News:

Disney To Shoot Pirates 4 In 3D
According to Deadline, Disney has decided to shoot Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in 3D, but maintain its May 20, 2011 release date. This decision elicits a few emotions from me.  First and foremost, anger. I hate 3D, and no one will ever convince me of its value. Second, confusion. How can they shoot a giant movie like this in 3D, edit it, put in all the special effects, and release it in less than one year?

Pixar's Day And Night Teaser
Slashfilm got their hands on an exclusive clip from Pixar's new short Day And Night. The short features 2D characters who's insides are 3D. It sounds confusing, and it kinda is, but it's really cool! I hope this runs before Toy Story 3!

Live Action Cinderella Coming To Theaters?
Hot on the heels of Alice In Wonderland's success, Disney ordered a live-action adaptation of Maleficent.  Now, it looks like they're hoping to continue the live action trend with an adaptation of Cinderella.  I'm not so sure about this.  Cinderella is the classic of all classics when it comes to Disney. Their logo is Cinderella's castle, for Pete's sake! If I were in charge, I wouldn't remake something so iconic and brand-defining.

Studios Try To Screw Theaters Over
Ugh.

Theaters Trying To Screw Consumers Over
UGH!

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Weekend Fix: Shrek Forever After And MacGruber Both Majorly Disappoint

on Sunday, May 23, 2010   4 comments

The video is FINALLY posted! At this point, there's not much point spending a lot of time recapping the weekend. Watch the video above for my take on this sad frame, and then check below for the full chart. Led by a disappointing Shrek Forever After, the Top 12 films grossed $143 million down a big 16% from last year. MacGruber was DOA, taking in just $4 million in its opening.

Top 12 Box Office Hits For May 21-23, 2010
Rank Movie Studio Theaters Weekend Gross
ChgAVG.Total
1
Shrek Forever After Dreamworks 4359 $71,250,000 New$16,345 $71,250,000
2
Iron Man 2 Paramount 4177 $26,600,000 -49%$6,368 $251,265,000
3
Robin Hood Universal 3505 $18,350,000 -49%$5,235 $65,650,000
4
Letters To Juliet Summit 2975 $9,100,000 -33%$3,059 $27,426,241
5
Just Wright Fox Search 1831 $4,225,000 -49%$2,307 $14,631,640
6
MacGruber Universal 2551 $4,000,000 New$1,568 $4,000,000
7
Date Night Fox 1869 $2,825,000 -26%$1,512 $90,660,314
8
A Nightmare On Elm Street Warner Bros 2125 $2,285,000 -51%$1,075 $59,931,000
9
How To Train Your Dragon Dreamworks 1751 $1,850,000 -63%$1,057 $210,940,000
10
Kites Reliance 207 $952,682 New$4,602 $952,682
11
The Back-Up Plan CBS Films 1079 $900,000 -62%$834 $35,876,777
12
Babies Focus 395 $707,813 -29%$1,792 $5,095,636
All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

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Friday Estimates: Shrek Headed For An Unhappy Ending With Awful $65M Weekend, MacGruber Just $4.5M!

on Saturday, May 22, 2010   7 comments

Wipe that smile off your face, Shrek! Friday Estimates are coming in, and the news is pretty disappointing across the board.  Shrek Forever After earned just $20 million on Friday, while MacGruber found only $1.6 million.  I don't even know which result is worse!  Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood both fell substantially as well.  Funnily enough, after all the Amanda Seyfried debates in the comments, Letters To Juliet had the best hold of any movie in the Top 5! After the jump, I'll get into some box office analysis, and you can also check out the full Friday chart!

Shrek Forever After pulled in $20 million on Friday, and the Dreamworks execs have to be disappointed with that result.  I thought other analysts were crazy for their $115 million predictions, but it appears that even my $93 million was far too bullish, as Forever After's results will come in much lower.  Back in 2007, Shrek The Third earned $38.6 million on its first Friday on it's way to $121.6 million for the weekend.  If we apply the same 3.2 multiplier to Shrek Forever After, the 3D sequel will only earn $65 million this weekend. This edition of Shrek felt tacked on and pointless, and Dreamworks really dropped the ball on advertising, and when you consider the fact that Forever After had 3D ticket prices to boost its grosses, it becomes even more apparent how unexcited people were for this film. Perhaps if How To Train Your Dragon outperforms Shrek Forever After at the domestic box office (and that's very much a possibility), Dreamworks will start to realize that people like quality sequels.

MacGruber found a paltry $1.6 million on Friday, and in terms of Saturday Night Live adaptations, you can add it to the Night At The Roxbury/Coneheads pile instead of the Wayne's World/Blues Brothers one.  Despite it's solid reviews, there was a lingering skepticism around MacGruber that it simply looked awful.  Spoofs don't play well in advertising.  On top of that, this skit has a built in audience of fans, so there isn't much hope for a solid multiplier.  I'll give the action-comedy $4.5 million for the weekend, and $12.5 million overall.

Among holdovers, Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood both saw precipitous declines. Both films are male-driven action films, so large declines should be expected, but when you consider the original Iron Man's leggy performance, as well as Robin Hood's lukewarm domestic opening weekend, these drops seem a bit more severe.  Iron Man 2 fell 48% from last Friday to $7.8 million, and it should find another $27 million this weekend, which would lift the blockbuster's overall total to $251 million.  For comparison, Iron Man had only earned $223 million after three weekends, but its third weekend gross of $31.8 million is a number that Iron Man 2 will not reach. Again, quality sequels please.  Robin Hood, meanwhile, fell 57% from its first Friday down to $5.5 million.  It should earn $17.2 million over the weekend, and push it's total to an underwhelming $65 million.  Once again, Universal spent WAY too much money on a movie, as Robin Hood reportedly cost $200 million to produce.  Right now, strong international grosses are saving it.

So, after a little bit of debate about Amanda Seyfried's drawing power, Letters To Juliet turned out a great second Friday at the box office.  The romantic comedy earned an additional $3 million on Friday, which represents a 40% drop, and it looks to be headed for a solid $9.4 million weekend.  This would leave Letters To Juliet just under $28 million by weekend's end, which isn't breaking any records, but it does show that the movie may earn $45-50 million in theaters, which is markedly better than former rom-com star, Jennifer Lopez's, recent effort The Back-Up Plan.

Friday Estimates for May 21, 2010
RankMovie Friday Gross Estimated Weekend
1Shrek Forever After $20 million $65 million
2Iron Man 2 $7.8 million $27 million
3Robin Hood $5.5 million $17.2 million
4Letters To Juliet $3 million $9.4 million
5MacGruber $1.6 million $4.4 million
6Just Wright $1.3 million $4 million
7Date Night $1 million $3 million

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Predictions: Shrek Won't Go On Forever After; MacGruber Needs To Defuse Itself Before It Bombs!

on Friday, May 21, 2010   3 comments

The neverending upload just finished, and I'm about to get in the car and head back to Virginia from the beach. Enjoy the video above, as well as my full predictions below!

Box Office Predictions for May 21-23, 2010
RankMovie Theaters Predicted Gross
1Shrek Forever After 4,359 $92 million
2Iron Man 2 4,177 $26 million
3Robin Hood 3,505 $16.4 million
4MacGruber 2,551 $9 million
5Letters To Juliet 2,975 $7 million
6Just Wright 1,831 $4.2 million
7How To Train Your Dragon 1,869 $3 million
8Date Night 1,751 $2.7 million
9A Nightmare On Elm Street 2,125 $2.3 million
10The Back-Up Plan 1,079 $1 million

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Box Office Bits #3

on Thursday, May 20, 2010   3 comments

Whenever I've been away from the blog for a while, my favorite way of catching up on all things box office is with a new edition of Box Office Bits.  These little nuggets of box office information cover pretty much anything I want: international stats, major milestones, domestic grosses, funny titles, or weird box office quirks that no one except the exceptional readers of TBOJ would fully appreciate. The only unifying theme is that these pieces of information will each be Twitter-style, in 140 characters or less.  Thus, let's dive into the wonderful world of hyper-short, mega-random box office analysis!

-Date Night has become quite a hit over the past six weeks! It's $87M total edges Mean Girls as the biggest hit of Tina Fey's career.

-Furry Vengeance's $15M total is pretty wretched, especially because I love Brendan Fraser. He could use some career vengeance.

-Movies from 7 weeks ago will all be forgotten soon. The Last Song ($61M), Why Did I Get Married Too ($59M), and Clash Of The Titans ($160M).

-Internationally, Robin Hood more than doubled its rather disappointing $36M domestic opening, with a great $75M.

-Alice In Wonderland currently has $980M worldwide, and it's only 3 or 4 weeks away from the $1 billion mark. WOW.

-How To Train Your Dragon deserves a $208M total because it's delightful. I just wish 3D ticket prices hadn't helped it to that total.

-How To Train Your Dragon has earned $222 overseas, which also makes me happy. Bring on the sequels, Dreamworks!

-Iron Man 2 has earned $461M worldwide after two weeks, so it shouldn't have much trouble matching Iron Man's $585M total.

-When did Hot Tub Time Machine earn $49M? That doesn't seem like that big of a disaster...

-Sorry Disneynature, but Earth ($32M) > Oceans ($17M).

-Sequel titles are dropping the colon and getting shorter again! I'll take Iron Man 2 over Iron Man: The Wrath Of Whiplash any day.

-Avatar's lingering presence in theaters makes me think Fox is trying to get it to just reach the $750M milestone.

-A Nightmare On Elm Street has earned $56M, and I swear to you, I'd completely forgotten it was out. April/May has been way too busy!

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My Top 5 For The Summer! What Are Your Summer Picks?

on Wednesday, May 19, 2010   10 comments

The movie world likes to believe that the Summer movie season kicks off on the first week of May, and these days, it seems like Hollywood's trying to push it back to late April! As for me, I think the Summer movie season starts when my Summer actually starts! I guess once I finish school next year, I'll no longer be able to use getting out of school as a marker for the start of my Summer, but for now, I do!  Thus, because my Summer just got started, and because it is List Wednesday, I thought it would be fun to count down my Top 5 movie picks for the Summer (hint: only one of the movies from the above picture made the cut).  If you want to know what to expect over the next three months, check out Yahoo! Movies' super cool Summer Movie Guide right here.  The choices that follow aren't necessarily going to be the highest grossing or most critically praised films, but they're the ones that have captured my attention and that I can't wait to go see.  After reading my list below, let me know your Top 5 movies of the Summer in the comments below!

5. Inception (July 16) - Trailer
It looks mind-bendingly strange and absolutely awesome. I'm not as excited about this movie as the rest of the Christopher Nolan-worshipping online film community, but I like a trippy thriller every now and then.

4. Knight And Day (Jun 25) - Trailer
There's something nice about seeing Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz get back to their roots with a fun action-comedy like this.  It's like they finally remembered that they used to be big movie stars that people liked seeing on the silver screen!  The fantastic trailer has me very excited for Knight And Day because it looks like plain fun!

3. Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time (May 28) - Trailer
I didn't play the game, so I don't know if they're massacring the story, but the CGI-filled spectacle looks equal parts cheesy and awesome.  I'm not one of those pretentious film buffs who always needs thought-provoking, edgy fare.  Like the above film, Prince Of Persia looks like a whole lotta fun, and that's what Summer movies should be about!

2. Toy Story 3 (June 18) - Trailer
Like I always say, until Pixar gives me a reason to doubt them, I won't.  Their films are always wonderful, and I'm sure this will be no exception.

1. Salt (July 23) - Trailer
I don't know why, but this movie intrigues me so much. The ambiguously evil secret agent role seems tailor-made for Angelina Jolie, and the suspenseful trailer had me excited and confused. I hope it loves up to the hype I've created for it in my mind!

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DVD/Blu-Ray Sales: All About Avatar And The Male-Driven Blu-Ray Market

on Tuesday, May 18, 2010   10 comments

Why is it that my DVD/Blu-Ray column always seems to be the one that falls by the wayside? Maybe it's because it's the most labor-intensive thing I do here at TBOJ.  Either way, I've spent hours upon hours calculating my Blu-Ray sales estimates because I figure that there has to be at least a few people who appreciate TBOJ's exclusive Blu-Ray data! This time around, I've got the past four weeks of DVD and Blu-Ray sales, along with my DVD Sales Notes, and most of the news revolves around Avatar's utter domination of the home market. Indeed, the alien blockbuster that broke every record at the box office has been breaking every record on the home market as well, so click inside for a slew of data gathered from The-Numbers, and Home Media Magazine. Enjoy!

DVD Sales Notes:

-James Cameron's alien opus, Avatar, invaded millions of homes around the world over the past three weeks.  I'm sure you've read the reports about Avatar having sold 19.7 million Blu-Ray and DVDs worldwide in its first three weeks of release and taking out The Dark Knight's record, but I'm dealing with American figures here.  After three weeks, Avatar has sold an amazing 6.3 million DVDs and a shocking 4.3 million Blu-Rays. Keep in mind, these estimates don't include Wal-Mart, which doesn't report its sales figures.  Still, no matter how you cut it, 10.6 million copies is an astonishing number, and more than any other movie, Avatar is doing its part to usher in Blu-Ray as the new primary format.

-Speaking of Blu-Ray's continuing emergence in the home market, I'm gathering that males are very much the driving force behind the format's growth.  The most successful Blu-Ray sellers, like Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, and 2012, appeal to action/sci-fi-driven males.  Romantic comedies like Leap Year and It's Complicated and female-targeting films like The Lovely Bones and The Young Victoria have performed unimpressively on Blu-Ray.  My feeling is that gadget-loving men have picked up more Blu-Ray players than women, and they're buying special effects-filled action films that appeal to them.  Even the Blu-Ray re-releases are targeting men.  Classic films like Saving Private Ryan, Tombstone, Apollo 13, and The Thing have strong male allegiances, and they've been selling well.

-The fact that Crazy Heart sold 542,748 DVDs and 66,335 Blu-Ray units in two weeks surprises me.  Considering the film only earned $39 million in theaters, these are very impressive stats, and the Blu-Ray sales only support my hypothesis that males are driving the Blu-Ray market.  After all, guys love Jeff Bridges.

-The fact that Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel is only a few weeks away of surpassing The Princess And The Frog's sales total makes me sad for America.  Both films sit around 3.7 million copies sold.

-Following the theatrical release of Iron Man 2, the original Iron Man enjoyed a nice 178.5% bump, shifting over 70,000 DVDs in its 84th week of release.

-I just want to mention a few more movies.  Sherlock Holmes and The Blind Side have been selling quite well.  Tooth Fairy had a solid debut, too.  Leap Year hasn't been anything special, but it's been a heckuva lot better than Nine, which continued to disappoint in the home market. 

DVD Sales for the Week Ending April 18, 2010
RankTitleUnits this Week% ChangeTotal UnitsSales this WeekTotal SalesWeeks in Release
1 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 262,849 -37.7% 3,223,363 $4,288,013 $54,591,413 3
2 Sherlock Holmes 261,851 -25.3% 1,737,285 $4,448,848 $29,516,472 3
3 The Blind Side 191,302 -43.3% 4,027,650 $3,058,919 $65,519,510 4
4 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 121,831 -36.4% 6,367,379 $2,130,824 $144,809,060 4
5 The Princess and the Frog 92,681 -34.5% 3,598,590 $1,296,607 $56,650,044 5
6 Alice in Wonderland 85,006 -41.9% - $1,529,258 - 629
7 Crazy on the Outside 75,569 -.-% 75,569 $1,132,779 $1,132,779 1
8 Pirate Radio 53,648 -.-% 53,648 $1,038,089 $1,038,089 1
9 The Great Mouse Detective 51,571 -.-% - $771,502 - 911
10 Brothers 46,629 -11.6% 376,441 $802,019 $6,405,525 4
11 Where the Wild Things Are 44,106 33.5% 1,393,797 $758,623 $25,452,919 7
12 2012 43,633 -21.7% 2,628,653 $828,591 $45,056,031 7
13 Robots 40,926 -14.5% - $525,609 - 238
14 Ninja Assassin 39,690 -4.0% 557,084 $654,488 $10,783,498 5
15 Dora the Explorer: Pirate Adventure 38,928 -13.6% - $388,501 - 325
16 Old Dogs 35,327 -31.0% 1,111,995 $736,568 $19,443,728 6
17 Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans 34,985 -69.4% 149,205 $524,425 $2,236,583 2
18 The Men Who Stare at Goats 34,749 -21.2% 331,059 $573,011 $5,843,274 4
19 Edward Scissorhands 33,277 -.-% - $421,503 - 502
20 The Sandlot 33,198 -.-% - $306,862 - 429
21 The Hangover 32,856 -.-% 8,775,842 $655,319 $159,273,964 18
22 Mad Men: Season Three 32,711 -24.8% 209,840 $588,471 $5,383,901 4
23 Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 32,278 -7.3% 944,633 $624,579 $16,858,880 6
24 Tenderness 31,752 -.-% 31,752 $555,978 $555,978 1
25 The Hurt Locker 30,414 -33.8% 1,531,122 $547,148 $27,657,323 14
26 Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium 30,307 -.-% 1,235,536 $392,521 $21,695,235 111
27 Up in the Air 30,089 -2.7% 870,085 $459,760 $14,731,292 6
28 Fantastic Mr. Fox 29,623 -26.9% 284,479 $503,295 $5,088,154 4
29 Planet 51 29,413 -21.8% 770,165 $593,778 $13,219,528 6
30 Ponyo 28,220 -19.0% 590,198 $394,798 $10,352,899 7


Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending April 18, 2010
RankTitleUnits this WeekTotal Units
1 Sherlock Holmes 80,000 677,000
2 The Hurt Locker 41,272 -
3 Toy Story 37,784 658,064
4 The Blind Side 34,544 642,820
5 Lord Of The Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy 32,072 156,272
6 Toy Story 2 32,032 587,944
7 Apollo 13 30,744 30,744
8 Alvin And The Chipmunks 30,464 -
9 2012 25,544 1,583,563
10 The Princess And The Frog 23,072 664,984
11 New Moon 21,976 1,141,804
12 Zombieland 19,456 -
13 The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 17,000 441,972
14 Fantastic Mr. Fox 15,944 -
15 Pirate Radio 15,328 15,328
16 Bad Lieutenant: Port Of Call New Orleans 15,192 15,192
17 Pandorum 14,376 49,319
18 Iron Man 14,136 -
19 Ninja Assassin 12,952 300,966
20 The Dark Knight 12,224 -



DVD Sales for the Week Ending April 25, 2010
RankTitleUnits this Week% ChangeTotal UnitsSales this WeekTotal SalesWeeks in Release
1 Avatar 3,956,575 -.-% 3,956,575 $63,186,503 $63,186,503 1
2 Crazy Heart 372,709 -.-% 372,709 $7,129,923 $7,129,923 1
3 The Lovely Bones 194,268 -.-% 194,268 $3,704,691 $3,704,691 1
4 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 178,442 -32.1% 3,401,805 $2,896,542 $57,487,955 4
5 The Blind Side 130,567 -31.7% 4,158,217 $2,087,766 $67,607,276 5
6 Sherlock Holmes 122,654 -53.2% 1,859,939 $2,083,891 $31,600,364 4
7 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 81,110 -33.4% 6,448,489 $1,418,614 $146,227,674 5
8 The Young Victoria 60,536 -.-% 60,536 $1,089,043 $1,089,043 1
9 The Princess and the Frog 52,227 -43.6% 3,650,817 $730,656 $57,380,700 6
10 Alice in Wonderland 43,918 -48.3% - $790,085 - 630
11 Australia 36,796 -.-% 1,808,467 $462,158 $28,722,019 60
12 Crazy on the Outside 34,027 -55.0% 109,596 $510,065 $1,642,844 2
13 Glee, Volume One: Road to Sectionals 32,444 -.-% - $917,516 $18,762,611 17
14 The Hurt Locker 29,694 -2.4% 1,560,816 $534,195 $28,191,518 15
15 Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans 28,656 -18.1% 177,861 $441,876 $2,678,458 3
16 Iron Man 27,835 -.-% 9,144,307 $408,390 $163,110,748 82
17 2012 27,696 -36.5% 2,656,349 $525,947 $45,581,978 8
18 The Drawn Together Movie: The Movie 26,113 -.-% 26,113 $391,434 $391,434 1
19 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 24,135 -.-% 4,420,540 $394,293 $73,497,593 32
20 Ninja Assassin 23,344 -41.2% 580,428 $384,943 $11,168,441 6
21 The Men Who Stare at Goats 22,802 -34.4% 353,861 $376,005 $6,219,279 5
22 Brothers 22,552 -51.6% 398,993 $416,986 $6,822,511 5
23 The Great Mouse Detective 22,157 -57.0% - $298,898 - 912
24 Old Dogs 21,761 -38.4% 1,133,756 $467,644 $19,911,372 7
25 The Hangover 21,366 -35.0% 8,797,208 $462,078 $159,736,042 19
26 Cheech & Chong's Hey Watch This! 20,970 -.-% 20,970 $345,795 $345,795 1
27 Where the Wild Things Are 20,574 -53.4% 1,414,371 $380,413 $25,833,332 8
28 Fantastic Mr. Fox 20,290 -31.5% 304,769 $344,727 $5,432,881 5
29 Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 20,179 -37.5% 964,812 $403,378 $17,262,258 7
30 Ponyo 19,835 -29.7% 610,033 $277,492 $10,630,391 8


Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending April 25, 2010
RankTitleUnits this WeekTotal Units
1 Avatar 2,700,000 2,700,000
2 Crazy Heart 46,710 46,710
3 Sherlock Holmes 42,120 719,120
4 The Lovely Bones 25,110 25,110
5 Toy Story 22,410 680,474
6 The Blind Side 19,440 662,260
7 Minority Report 18,900 18,900
8 Toy Story 2 18,900 606,844
9 2012 18,360 1,601,923
10 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 17,820 -
11 The Young Victoria 14,040 14,040
12 The Dark Knight 13,230 -
13 Lord Of The Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy 12,420 168,692
14 New Moon 12,420 1,154,224
15 Iron Man 11,610 -
16 The Princess And The Frog 11,610 676,594
17 The Hurt Locker 11,070 -
18 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 10,530 -
19 Kingdom Of Heaven 9,720 -
20 Apollo 13 9,180 39,924




DVD Sales for the Week Ending May 2, 2010
RankTitleUnits this Week% ChangeTotal UnitsSales this WeekTotal SalesWeeks in Release
1 Avatar 1,770,775 -55.2% 5,727,350 $33,036,818 $96,223,321 2
2 It's Complicated 711,320 -.-% 711,320 $12,085,327 $12,085,327 1
3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 114,569 -35.8% 3,516,374 $1,852,936 $59,340,891 5
4 Crazy Heart 102,174 -72.6% 474,883 $1,838,110 $8,968,033 2
5 The Blind Side 100,757 -22.8% 4,258,974 $1,589,945 $69,197,222 6
6 The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 96,861 -.-% 96,861 $1,742,529 $1,742,529 1
7 Sherlock Holmes 88,362 -28.0% 1,948,301 $1,469,460 $33,069,824 5
8 The Lovely Bones 67,112 -65.5% 261,380 $1,140,233 $4,844,924 2
9 The Princess and the Frog 56,488 8.2% 3,707,305 $790,267 $58,170,967 7
10 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 55,071 -32.1% 6,503,560 $963,192 $147,190,866 6
11 The Descent: Part 2 45,686 -.-% 45,686 $981,792 $981,792 1
12 Alice in Wonderland 36,124 -17.7% - $649,871 - 631
13 Iron Man 25,473 -8.5% 9,169,780 $336,707 $163,447,455 83
14 The Young Victoria 23,551 -61.1% 84,087 $423,682 $1,512,725 2
15 2012 21,426 -22.6% 2,677,775 $406,880 $45,988,858 9
16 Glee, Volume One: Road to Sectionals 21,249 -34.5% - $473,428 $19,236,038 18
17 Old Dogs 20,541 -5.6% 1,154,297 $441,426 $20,352,798 8
18 The Hangover 20,187 -5.5% 8,817,395 $433,403 $160,169,445 20
19 Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 19,833 -1.7% 984,645 $413,518 $17,675,776 8
20 Ninja Assassin 19,479 -16.6% 599,907 $315,560 $11,484,001 7
21 Brothers 19,301 -14.4% 418,294 $377,528 $7,200,039 6
22 The Hurt Locker 18,673 -37.1% 1,579,489 $335,927 $28,527,445 16
23 Crazy on the Outside 18,416 -45.9% 128,012 $276,056 $1,918,900 3
24 Up 18,062 -.-% 10,330,760 $292,155 $174,165,518 25
25 The Men Who Stare at Goats 15,747 -30.9% 369,608 $240,614 $6,459,894 6
26 Fantastic Mr. Fox 15,629 -23.0% 320,398 $265,537 $5,698,418 6
27 Ponyo 14,902 -24.9% 624,935 $208,479 $10,838,870 9
28 The Dark Knight 14,299 -.-% 14,471,719 $155,916 $233,345,817 73
29 The Adventures of Milo and Otis 11,713 -.-% - $90,190 - 557
30 Mad Men: Season Three 11,587 -.-% 239,247 $208,450 $5,912,933 6


Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending May 2, 2010
RankTitleUnits this WeekTotal Units
1 Avatar 1,250,000 3,950,000
2 It's Complicated 75,250 75,250
3 The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus 42,125 42,215
4 Sherlock Holmes 40,750 759,870
5 Tombstone 34,250 34,250
6 Armageddon 28,125 28,125
7 Iron Man 23,500 -
8 Toy Story 23,125 703,599
9 The Blind Side 20,875 683,135
10 The Dark Knight 20,125 -
11 Crazy Heart 19,625 66,335
12 Toy Story 2 19,375 626,219
13 Planet Earth: The Complete Series 18,000 18,000
14 2012 17,625 1,619,188
15 New Moon 12,625 1,166,849
16 The Hurt Locker 12,000 -
17 Lord Of The Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy 11,125 179,817
18 The Princess And The Frog 11,125 687,719
19 9 10,875 -
20 Star Trek 10,750 -




DVD Sales for the Week Ending May 9, 2010
RankTitleUnits this Week% ChangeTotal UnitsSales this WeekTotal SalesWeeks in Release
1 Avatar 581,036 -67.2% 6,308,386 $10,867,174 $107,090,495 3
2 Tooth Fairy 455,067 -.-% 455,067 $7,795,298 $7,795,298 1
3 It's Complicated 354,141 -50.2% 1,065,461 $6,016,856 $18,102,182 2
4 The Blind Side 322,881 220.5% 4,581,855 $4,126,419 $73,323,641 7
5 Leap Year 159,843 -.-% 159,843 $2,875,576 $2,875,576 1
6 Sherlock Holmes 105,516 19.4% 2,053,817 $1,348,494 $34,418,318 6
7 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 102,262 -10.7% 3,618,636 $1,116,691 $60,457,582 6
8 Nine 74,256 -.-% 74,256 $1,335,865 $1,335,865 1
9 Iron Man 70,953 178.5% 9,240,733 $890,311 $164,337,766 84
10 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 68,446 24.3% 6,572,006 $1,197,121 $148,387,986 7
11 Crazy Heart 67,865 -33.6% 542,748 $1,220,891 $10,188,925 3
12 The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 47,819 -50.6% 144,680 $860,264 $2,602,793 2
13 The Princess and the Frog 47,006 -16.8% 3,754,311 $657,614 $58,828,581 8
14 The Descent: Part 2 43,229 -5.4% 88,915 $928,991 $1,910,783 2
15 The Lovely Bones 38,697 -42.3% 300,077 $657,462 $5,502,386 3
16 Julie & Julia 35,501 -.-% 2,292,579 $570,146 $38,982,359 22
17 Glee, Volume One: Road to Sectionals 33,758 58.9% - $607,306 $19,843,345 19
18 Where the Wild Things Are 30,156 -.-% 1,455,883 $430,628 $26,483,698 10
19 Alice in Wonderland 29,749 -17.6% - $535,185 - 632
20 August Rush 29,517 -.-% 1,297,587 $191,565 $21,815,667 113
21 The Proposal 26,844 -.-% 4,991,199 $460,976 $82,412,969 30
22 Brothers 26,250 36.0% 444,544 $432,863 $7,632,901 7
23 The Time Traveler's Wife 26,205 -.-% 1,183,652 $353,505 $19,205,291 13
24 X-Men, Volume 5 25,333 -.-% 25,333 $493,740 $493,740 1
25 2012 24,985 16.6% 2,702,760 $490,456 $46,479,314 10
26 WWE: Wrestlemania XXVI 24,810 -.-% 24,810 $483,547 $483,547 1
27 Up 24,694 36.7% 10,355,454 $395,225 $174,560,743 26
28 Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day 21,220 7.0% 1,005,865 $456,018 $18,131,794 9
29 The Young Victoria 19,794 -16.0% 103,881 $356,094 $1,868,819 3
30 Ninja Assassin 17,622 -9.5% 617,529 $338,342 $11,822,343 8


Blu-Ray Sales Estimates for Week Ending May 9, 2010
RankTitleUnits this WeekTotal Units
1 Avatar 400,000 4,350,000
2 Saving Private Ryan 92,440 92,440
3 Tooth Fairy 48,720 48,720
4 Iron Man 43,920 -
5 It's Complicated 37,320 112,570
6 The Dark Knight 32,280 -
7 Sherlock Holmes 28,880 788,750
8 Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 25,320 -
9 Nine 22,480 22,480
10 The Blind Side 20,000 703,135
11 Leap Year 19,360 19,360
12 Toy Story 18,840 722,439
13 Toy Story 2 16,600 642,819
14 Doctor Zhivago 15,600 15,600
15 The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus 13,360 55,575
16 Star Trek 12,680 -
17 2012 12,080 1,631,268
18 New Moon 11,800 1,178,649
19 Tombstone 9,640 43,890
20 The Hurt Locker 9,520 -

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