DVD Sales: Wolverine And Barbie Lead Chart (and this is the second Barbie headline in one week...)

Apologies for the delay, but the hard drive on my computer decided to enter meltdown mode this week, and I have been rendered laptop-less (that sounds like a computer strip club) for the week. Trust me, it's frustrating. Anyway, there will be no Wednesday List this week, but I have managed to find enough time on a public computer to give you guys my DVD Sales Notes for the week. Keep reading for the Chart and my notes.

DVD Sales Notes

-It's about time we had a massive debut on the DVD Sales Chart!  X-Men Origins: Wolverine blasted out of the gate with 2.4 million units sold in its first week, and $40.2 million in sales!  Both the DVD market and the X-Men franchise needed a huge success like this.

-Go Barbie!  First you get your own live-action adaptation deal.  Then, you go and have another solid debut in your direct-to-DVD franchise that has proven extremely lucrative for Mattel.  With 399,420 units and $5.6 million in sales, Barbie And The Three Musketeers is off to a solid start.

-Continuing the inexplicable trend of releasing TV shows on DVD right after the new season debuts, instead of releasing them beforehand and allowing viewers to catch up, three more shows had strong debuts on the home market this week.  Grey's Anatomy: The Complete Fifth Season found $9.5 million.  The bawdy It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia: Season 4 nabbed $5.1 million.  And the breakout hit of the moment The Big Bang Theory: The Complete Second Season found $4.5 million, which is pretty great for a traditional sitcom.  I would be willing to bet that The Big Bang Theory gets the post-Super Bowl slot this year.

-Patrick Swayze's death = $9.5 million for a re-release of Dirty Dancing.

Top DVD Sales for the Week Ending September 20, 2009

Rank	Title	Units this Week	% Chg	Total Units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Wks
1	X-Men Origins: Wolverine	2,423,662	-.-%	2,423,662	$40,196,919	$40,196,919	1
2	Barbie and the Three Musketeers	399,420	-.-%	399,420	$5,643,805	$5,643,805	1
3	Grey's Anatomy: The Complete Fifth Season	259,089	-.-%	259,089	$9,472,294	$9,472,294	1
4	It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia: Season 4	201,406	-.-%	201,406	$5,067,375	$5,067,375	1
5	The Big Bang Theory: The Complete Second Season	156,084	-.-%	156,084	$4,524,875	$4,524,875	1
6	The Office - Season Five	149,782	-65.9%	588,548	$4,920,339	$19,895,422	2
7	Crank 2: High Voltage	118,517	-61.2%	424,074	$2,228,748	$7,573,826	2
8	Hannah Montana The Movie	104,945	-33.1%	2,231,310	$1,970,867	$38,201,979	5
9	Next Day Air	102,279	-.-%	102,279	$2,044,557	$2,044,557	1
10	X-Men, Volume 3	81,435	-.-%	81,435	$1,424,298	$1,424,298	1
11	Bionicle: The Legend Reborn	76,588	-.-%	76,588	$1,148,054	$1,148,054	1
12	X-Men, Volume 4	75,861	-.-%	75,861	$1,326,809	$1,326,809	1
13	Dirty Dancing - 20th Anniversary Edition	68,280	-.-%	822,349	$506,638	$9,037,337	124
14	Dexter - The Complete Third Season	56,471	44.8%	558,490	$1,491,964	$14,036,020	5
15	State of Play	54,775	-47.1%	513,428	$1,094,952	$8,746,439	3
16	Star Wars: The Clone Wars - Clone Commandos	52,593	-.-%	52,593	$525,404	$525,404	1
17	Fringe: The Complete First Season	52,351	-53.0%	163,710	$1,861,602	$6,013,065	2
18	Heroes - Season Three	50,170	-45.6%	447,279	$1,870,338	$16,757,954	3
19	Bring It On: Fight to the Finish	47,504	-55.3%	415,629	$854,597	$7,397,149	3
20	Fighting	46,176	15.4%	464,867	$923,058	$8,169,835	4
21	Coraline	45,565	-22.8%	1,874,377	$788,548	$34,611,570	9
22	Disney Nature Earth	43,384	-43.6%	332,500	$858,136	$5,918,749	3
23	Fast And Furious	43,141	-31.0%	2,768,154	$656,188	$45,801,217	8
24	Race to Witch Mountain	42,656	-9.4%	1,365,038	$859,907	$24,532,090	7
25	True Blood: The Complete First Season	40,233	-15.9%	1,580,074	$1,361,887	$54,997,018	18
26	I Love You, Man	39,204	-26.9%	1,181,764	$778,199	$20,171,708	6
27	Duplicity	38,989	-0.2%	441,310	$779,390	$7,563,221	4
28	WWE: The Best of Smackdown - 10th Anniversary 1999-2009	37,809	-.-%	37,809	$755,802	$755,802	1
29	17 Again	26,211	-41.1%	1,109,613	$526,141	$20,393,117	6
30	Obsessed	26,002	-18.5%	979,910	$501,319	$16,542,139	7

All numbers compiled by The-Numbers

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News The Caught My Eye: X4, X-Men: First Class, Paranormal Activity, Venom, And Iron Man 2

Welcome to the new Monday feature: News That Caught My Eye.  In this feature, I'll post some of the coolest news articles I spot each week.  I might write a few of my own thoughts, but really, I'm just hoping to pass along relevant, useful information to YOU, my faithful readers!  I guess that's enough of an introduction, so let's go ahead and get started:

Future Of The X-Men Franchise

This is a cool write-up via SlashFilm of X-Men producer Lauren Schuler Donner on the upcoming projects within the franchise.  She talks about the status and/or possibility of features like  X4, Deadpool, and X-Men: First Class. Personally, I think X-Men: First Class should be at the top of the list. I think Deadpool would be an egregious mistake to shell out too much money on...

As well as the eventual New Class, then - whenever that might be - Shuler Donner revealed that she has been cooking up plans for several other mutant films. The two she named? An X4, reuniting the X-Men and a big screen outing for The New Mutants. X4, she said, had yet to be pitched to the studio, however.

5 Minutes on Iron Man 2's Set

Entertainment Tonight provides us with a look at Iron Man 2 with their exclusive set visit.  Collider posted both of ET's videos, one of which you can see here.  The longer (though less informative) one is over at Collider.

Paranormal Activity Director Says "Thanks"

The director of Paranormal Activity, a little horror movie that is socially networking itself into getting a wide release, took a moment to thank excited fans this week.  Latino Review posted the YouTube video of the director, as well as the list of cities that Paranormal Activity is headed to next.  I definitely want to keep my eye on this movie, as it's release strategy completely fascinates me.

Are We Getting A Venom Movie?

According to Sci-Fi Wire, Sony is going to be producing a Venom movie, despite the incredibly negative response to the character in Spider-Man 3.  Hopefully, they actually spend some time developing him this time!  The article also talks about how this will affect the production of Spider-Man 4.

Today Wernick confirmed to us that the project is still moving forward and the writing team has turned the script in to the suits at Sony. "We've written two drafts of Venom, and the studio has it, and they're pushing forward in whatever ways they push forward," Wernick told SCI FI Wire in an exclusive interview.

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Weekend Fix: In Its 2nd Weekend, Meatballs Earns As Much As Surrogates And Fame Combined!

It was an interesting week at the box office this week.  Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs, after its $5.5 million Friday, roared far ahead of all the competition, finishing the weekend with $24.6 million.  That's a weekend multiplier of 4.4, which is incredible!  Meanwhile, Surrogates, Fame, and Pandorum all had relatively unimpressive debuts.  The Top 12 films were able to collectively gross $82.7 million this weekend, down 5.7% from the same weekend last year when Eagle Eye topped the charts with $29.1 million.  Watch the video above for an overview of this weekend's results, and then check out the full box office chart below:

Top 12 Estimates For September 25-27, 2009

Rank	Movie	Studio	Theaters	Weekend	Chg	AVG.	Total
1	Cloudy w/a Chance of Meatballs	Sony	3119	$24,600,000	-19%	$7,887	$60,036,000
2	Surrogates	Buena Vista	2951	$15,000,000	New	$5,083	$15,000,000
3	Fame	MGM	3096	$10,033,000	New	$3,241	$10,033,000
4	The Informant	Warner Bros.	2505	$6,915,000	-34%	$2,760	$20,992,000
5	I Can Do Bad All By Myself	Lionsgate	2120	$4,750,000	-52%	$2,241	$44,540,000
6	Pandorum	Overture	2506	$4,408,000	New	$1,759	$4,408,000
7	Love Happens	Universal	1898	$4,327,440	-46%	$2,280	$14,728,170
8	Jennifer's Body	Fox	2738	$3,500,000	-49%	$1,278	$12,305,814
9	9	Focus	2025	$2,832,053	-49%	$1,399	$27,100,633
10	Inglorious Basterds	Weinstein Co.	1960	$2,722,000	-29%	$1,389	$114,460,000
11	All About Steve	Fox	1965	$2,300,000	-32%	$1,170	$29,954,145
12	The Final Destination	Warner Bros.	1175	$1,300,000	-46%	$1,106	$64,500,000

All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

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Friday Estimates: Surrogates Sits Beneath A Cloudy Sky; Fame And Pandorum Are In A Storm

Early Friday Estimates are in, so come on in here and see how the weekend box office is shaping up!

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
It looks like Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs will being sitting on top of the box office again this weekend.  With $5.5 million on Friday, expect the weekend multiplier to be very strong, since this is a family movie, which tend to thrive on Saturdays and Sundays.  Cloudy could be headed for a $20 million weekend.

Surrogates

The Buena Vista thriller found $5.1 million on Friday.  It should finish right in line with my prediction, earning about $15 million over the weekend frame.

Fame

The musical remake couldn't live up to its name, scoring a mere $3.8 million on Friday.  This has to be disappointing result for MGM.  Give it $10 million for the weekend.

The Informant
This held up very well this weekend, earning $2.2 million on Friday.  A $7 million weekend seems to be in store for the Matt Damon film.

Pandorum

Dennis Quaid's sci-fi film undercut my already low prediction.  With $1.5 million on Friday, Pandorum can probably only beam up $4.4 million this weekend.

Here are the estimates from Steve Mason's SMOG.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES FOR 9/25-27
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $5.5M
2. Surrogates (Disney) - $5.1M
3. Fame (MGM) - $3.8M
4. The Informant! (Warner Bros) - $2.2M  
5. I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) - $1.65M
6.  Pandorum (Overture) - $1.5M

Be sure to check back here on Sunday for the Weekend Fix, where you can watch my video recap of this weekend's box office. BTW, you can see my YouTube channel here. There you can subscribe to my videos to see them as soon as their posted.

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Weekend Preview: Can "Surrogates" Find More "Fame" Than "Meatballs?"

The final weekend of September marks the end of the dreck that studios dump upon the moviegoing public and the official start to the Fall box office season.  This week, Surrogates, Fame, and Pandorum (all one word titles...interesting) hit theaters, but really, only Surrogates has a shot at the top spot.

Alright, I address the new releases in the video above, so let me take a brief moment to discuss holdovers.  With no competition in sight, and very positive word-of-mouth on its side, Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs should see a very soft decline of around the 33%.  The Informant, because it caters to an adult audience will not see too harsh of a weekend drop, but its box office performance has already proven fairly underwhelming.  A 45% drop would give it $6.2 million for the weekend.  Love Happens will continue to prove that romantic comedies, no matter how bad they are, usually hold up well week-to-week at the box office. A 40% drop would give the Jennifer Aniston sobfest $5.2 million for the weekend.  Jennifer's Body would probably see a drop of about 60%, but it's adding138 theaters to its count, which will soften the blow a bit.  A 55% drop will give the Megan Fox horror comedy $3.2 million.  Here's the full chart:

Box Office Predictions for September 25-27, 2009

Movie	Theaters	Predicted Gross
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs	3,119	$20 million
Surrogates	2,951	$15 million
Fame	3,096	$14 million
Pandorum	2,506	$6.5 million
The Informant!	2,505	$6.2 million
Love Happens	1,898	$5.2 million
I Can Do Bad All By Myself	2,120	$4.9 million
Jennifer's Body	2,738	$3.2 million
9	2,025	$2.8 million
Inglorious Basterds	1,960	$2.3 million

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News That Caught My Eye: A Barbie Movie And A Batman Fallacy

Here are some film industry stories I've read lately that I think are worth sharing.  Here are my thoughts on some articles about two future projects: a Barbie movie, and a third Batman picture.

Barbie (I couldn't bring myself to write it in pink.)

Variety is reporting that famous fifty year old doll, Barbie, is getting her own feature film.  Universal at Mattel are teaming up to produce a live action adaptation of the cheerful blonde icon.  This news is abosolutely fascinating to me.  The casting alone will be very interesting, for the producers are going to have to find the perfect actress for the job.  It probably can't be someone who's already famous, and it must be someone with a positive image and clean background.  Whoever is cast will be expected to be not only a great actress, but also a role model.  Barbie is a lucrative commodity.  According to the article:

Asked why there had never before been a live action feature (there have been 16 direct-to-video animated titles, selling 75 million units worldwide, per Mattel), Dickson called the U deal the logical next step in expanding the brand’s reach

Honestly, if Universal does this right, I could envision a sort of female-driven Forrest Gump. (Ken = Jenny?)  I really think it could be a cool movie if we saw Barbie in all of her different careers over the years, and this has the potential to be huge, but Universal has to make the right movie if they want to make money.  It cannot be too girly, and it cannot be too childish.  They're targeting families with this, and if they can tap into that market successfully, they'll be golden.  Obviously, a lot of people are buying the DVDs, so this has potential.  I'm seeing a holiday release for Barbie some time in the next few years.

Batman Fallacies
Honestly, I'm not really into speculating about sequels, and I'm not into being a blog critic, but this article is notable to me because it has a glaringly incorrect fact in it, and I'm tired of incorrect facts about the box office.  Last week, everyone kept telling me that Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs was the third highest grossing film worldwide of all time.  WRONG!  It is the third highest grossing film internationally of all time.  There's a big difference.  This week, on EW's Popwatch, Chris Nashawaty writes:

The one thing that is for sure, though, is that after The Dark Knight raked in $988 million worldwide — the second-largest historical gross after 1997’s Titanic — this sucker’s going to get made eventually. There’s too much money to be made for it not to.

WRONG! The Dark Knight is the fourth highest grossing film worldwide of all time.  Titanic is in first with $1.84 billion, in second is Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King with $1.19 billion, next comes Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest with $1.07 billion, and then The Dark Knight with $1.00 billion.  I know we like to speak in superlatives here in the blogosphere, but we can't just make things up! Things like this are why people think blogs are unreliable.

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5 Reasons I Hate 3-D Movies

It's List Wednesday, which means that it's time for a countdown!  This week, I decided to do make a video for List Wednesday... I've been doing that a lot lately, haven't I?  Well, I hope you enjoy them!  Still, this post isn't just a placeholder for one of my videos- it's useful too!  Inside, you'll find a list of all of 2009's 3-D releases, as well as how much money they earned at the box office.

Box Office Performance of 2009 3-D Movies

Release Date	Movie	Total Gross
Jan 16, 2009	My Bloody Valentine 3-D	$51.5 million
Feb 06, 2009	Coraline	$75.3 million
Feb 27, 2009	Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience	$19.1 million
Mar 27, 2009	Monsters Vs. Aliens	$198.4 million
May 1, 2009	Battle For Terra 3D	$1.9 million
May 29, 2009	Up	$291.9 million
Jul 01, 2009	Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs	$195.1 million
Jul 24, 2009	G-Force	$117.2 million
Aug 21, 2009	X-Games 3D: The Movie	$1.4 million
Aug 28, 2009	The Final Destination	$62.9 million (so far)
Sep 18, 2009	Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs	$33.0 million (so far)
Oct 02, 2009	Toy Story	???
Oct 30, 2009	Horrorween 3D	???
Nov 06, 2009	A Christmas Carol	???
Nov 20, 2009	Planet 51	???
Dec 18, 2009	Avatar	???
Dec 18, 2009	Frankenweenie	???
Dec 25, 2009	The Princess And The Frog	???

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DVD Sales: The Office Is The Latest Powerhouse TV Show on DVD

The latest DVD Sales Chart is out, so get on in here and check it out, along with my DVD Sales Notes:

DVD Sales Notes:

-Following the strong debut of Heroes last week ($14.6 million so far), and the amazing performance of True Blood this summer ($53.5 million!), The Office - Season Five continued the trend of TV shows performing well on DVD as it sold 407,426 copies in its first week for sales of $13.9 million.  That's pretty great!  Unfortunately, the super buzzy Fringe: The Complete First Season didn't breakout as much as Fox would have hoped.  If Supernatural can debut with $8.7 million, Fringe should have been able to do better than $3.8 million.

-Crank: High Voltage's $5 million opening sales week might seem unimpressive at a first glance, but the Jason Statham action movie only earned $13 million in theaters.  For whatever reason, Statham can not open a movie.  His movies almost never do very well, and yet, they always get sequels, and they always do pretty well on DVD.  I love the guy as an actor, but if I ran a studio, I would not be booking him as a lead.  His career is unique and inexplicable.

-Thomas the Tank Engine is on the chart! Thomas And Friends: Hero of the Rails earned $902,299 in its first week.  This takes me right back to my childhood!

-You know what's been quietly doing very well for itself on DVD for the past two months?  Fast And Furious! After seven weekends, the relaunch of the action franchise has sold 2.7 million DVDs and earned $45.1 million, which is very solid.

-Can anyone explain to me why Iron Man popped into 15th place after being off the Top 30 chart for a few months?  Was it the Disney/Marvel merger?  Did Iron Man 2 info get released?  Let me know in the comments.  Here's the full chart:

DVD Sales Chart for the Week Ending September 6, 2009

Rank	Title	Units this Week	% Chg	Total Units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Wks
1	The Office - Season Five	407,426	-.-%	407,426	$13,905,449	$13,905,449	1
2	Crank: High Voltage	283,731	-.-%	283,731	$4,963,278	$4,963,278	1
3	Hannah Montana The Movie	145,655	-47.4%	2,115,161	$2,650,921	$36,027,200	4
4	Fringe: The Complete First Season	103,405	-.-%	103,405	$3,854,938	$3,854,938	1
5	Bring It On: Fight to the Finish	98,719	-62.3%	360,531	$1,944,764	$6,392,950	2
6	State of Play	96,071	-73.0%	451,263	$1,831,113	$7,510,633	2
7	Heroes - Season Three	85,559	-71.9%	390,527	$3,207,607	$14,640,857	2
8	Disney Nature Earth	71,463	-66.3%	283,619	$1,352,080	$4,956,610	2
9	Thomas And Friends: Hero of the Rails	64,496	-.-%	64,496	$902,299	$902,299	1
10	Mickey Mouse Clubhouse: Mickey's Adventures in Wonderland	60,910	-.-%	60,910	$913,041	$913,041	1
11	Fast And Furious	58,058	-28.2%	2,720,547	$881,111	$45,077,252	7
12	Supernatural - The Complete Fourth Season	57,121	-76.7%	302,168	$2,288,267	$11,212,879	2
13	Coraline	54,840	15.0%	1,824,594	$946,654	$33,750,210	8
14	I Love You, Man	49,787	-41.2%	1,138,730	$959,893	$19,319,666	5
15	Iron Man	46,673	-.-%	9,033,049	$652,241	$161,697,021	50
16	True Blood: The Complete First Season	44,409	-30.0%	1,536,424	$1,531,666	$53,517,279	17
17	Race to Witch Mountain	43,717	-34.0%	1,319,019	$909,182	$23,602,243	6
18	The Last House on the Left	43,065	-48.0%	610,858	$879,387	$12,568,692	4
19	Criminal Minds: The Complete Fourth Season	42,413	-.-%	42,413	$1,517,537	$1,517,537	1
20	Watchmen	41,639	-28.4%	2,146,195	$866,537	$44,922,875	8
21	17 Again	41,313	-44.3%	1,080,224	$827,185	$19,803,345	5
22	Two and a Half Men - The Complete Sixth Season	38,746	-62.3%	141,610	$1,305,740	$3,722,016	2
23	Fighting	37,157	-62.1%	415,833	$742,768	$7,189,646	3
24	Duplicity	36,261	-61.2%	399,532	$719,781	$6,728,469	3
25	Dexter - The Complete Third Season	36,220	-38.7%	499,233	$1,259,732	$12,447,160	4
26	Sons of Anarchy - Season One	34,590	6.5%	207,277	$1,106,534	$6,630,791	4
27	House, M.D. - Season Five	33,857	-64.4%	380,892	$1,503,928	$12,092,733	3
28	Adventureland	31,356	-60.7%	292,228	$620,222	$5,471,050	3
29	Obsessed	29,632	-45.8%	951,628	$528,931	$16,000,122	6
30	Smallville: The Complete Eighth Season	29,624	-48.1%	293,080	$1,080,980	$10,694,489	3

All figures compiled by The-Numbers

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Weekend Fix: Meatballs' Box Office Performance Wasn't Cloudy At All!

Weekend Estimates are in!  Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs dominated the competition with $30.1 million over the weekend!  You can hear all about it, along with info about the rest of the Top 12, in my Weekend Fix video.  Once again, I'd love some feedback on this video in the Comments.  Do you like the format?  Is it informative?  Would you prefer write-ups?  Personally, I love making these (BTW, if you want to subscribe to my YouTube channel, click here).  I had it all done and ready to go by 3 PM, I just lost my connection 4 times this afternoon, and the video kept failing to upload... I went to a library and voila! Problem solved.  Enjoy! Here's the full Weekend Chart:

Top 12 Actuals For September 18-20, 2009

Rank	Movie	Studio	Theaters	Weekend	Chg	AVG.	Total
1	Cloudy w/a Chance of Meatballs	Sony	3119	$30,100,000	New	$9,651	$30,100,000
2	The Informant!	Warner Bros.	2505	$10,545,000	New	$4,210	$10,545,000
3	I Can Do Bad All By Myself	Lionsgate	2255	$10,060,000	-57%	$4,461	$37,930,000
4	Love Happens	Universal	1898	$8,455,590	New	$4,455	$8,455,590
5	Jennifer's Body	Fox	2702	$6,800,000	New	$2,517	$6,800,000
6	9	Focus	2060	$5,457,659	-49%	$2,649	$22,794,119
7	Inglorious Basterds	Weinstein Co.	2519	$3,603,000	-41$	$1,430	$109,901,000
8	All About Steve	Fox	2159	$3,400,000	-40%	$1,575	$26,678,421
9	Sorority Row	Summit	2591	$2,489,000	-51%	$961	$8,869,984
10	The Final Destination	Warner Bros.	1805	$2,375,000	-57%	$1,316	$62,392,000
11	Whiteout	Warner Bros.	2745	$2,060,000	-58%	$750	$8,483,000
12	Julie And Julia	Sony	2003	$1,900,000	-40%	$949	$88,446,000

All Numbers Provided By Exhibitor Relations Co.

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Friday Estimates: Meatballs-Good, Informant-Solid, Love Happens-Fair, Jennifer's Body-Poor

Here are your box office estimates for Friday September 18:

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs had a solid first day with $8.1 million, and it seems headed for a $27 million weekend.  The Informant! fared pretty well with $3.7 million on Friday, and a $10.8 million weekend seems in order.  Jennifer Aniston's Love Happens found $3.1 million, while Megan Fox's Jennifer's Body earned $2.8 million on Friday, but Jennifer's Body is sure to be frontloaded.  Give Love Happens $9 million for the weekend, while Body might find $6.8 million.

Friday Estimates for September 18, 2009
1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs - $8.1 million
2. The Informant - $3.7 million
3. I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $3.1 million
4. Love Happens - $3.1 million
5. Jennifer's Body - $2.8 million
6. 9 - $1.6 million
7. Inglorious Basterds - $1.2 million
8. All About Steve - $1.1 million
9. Sorority Row - $850,000
10. The Final Destination - $740,000
11. Whiteout - $665,000
12. Julie And Julia - $590,000

What do you think about these results? Let me hear your reactions in the comments!

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Weekend Preview: Will "Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs" Rain As Box Office King?

Four new films hit theaters this weekend, and contrary to the usual September box office behavior, we've got some high profile, well promoted pictures flying onto the screen.  Sony is bringing us an animated adaptation of the famous childrens book, Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs.   Fox has the Megan Fox horror film, Jennifer's Body.  Warner Brothers is premiering the Matt Damon vehicle, The Informant!.  And Universal is debuting a schmaltzy romantic (comedic?) film, Love Happens.  Along with solid holdovers from Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself and 9, it should be a lively weekend at the box office, which makes my job fun!  Here are my predictions:

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs - 3,119 theaters - $27 million
1. This is based on a popular childrens book.  Movies that are based on books have built in audiences, which helps box office a lot, but a movie with a built in kids audience is even better because it drags parents into the theater.
2. Advertising has been strong, the premise is fun, and reviews are great.  All of these things will help the box office.
3. Isn't it kind of nice to just get a nice, normal computer animated film?  None of this 3-D mumbo jumbo.  Imagine how refreshing it will be when Disney debuts The Princess And The Frog later this year and we get nice, normal traditional animation!

Jennifer's Body - 2,701 theaters - $13 million
1. Some analysts have this earning more, but I'm not convinced that Megan Fox is actually a box office draw.  Guys love to see her in the Transformers movies, but that's like saying Keira Knightley is the reason guys saw the Pirates of the Caribbean films. Action and adventure will get men into the seats, and though they'll gobble up the gorgeous women selling themselves on the screen, I don't believe that is the main drawing factor.  Fox has yet to prove she can open a movie, and as Sorority Row taught us last week, hot girls aren't enough to make something a box office hit.
2. In the film, Megan Fox becomes some sort of zombie, but the advertisements make her look more like some sort of vampire.  I'm sure this is intentional, as vampires are the new penguins in terms of consumer appeal, and it will probably help a bit.
3. R Ratings are not good for box office.  Especially for a movie headlined by someone with a very young fanbase.

The Informant! - 2,505 theaters - $12.5 million
1. I'm not going to lie.  I had heard nothing about this movie until last week, but it looks like it's being marketed as a Coen Brothers-style farce by Steven Soderbergh.
2. Matt Damon is another star who has yet to prove himself as a box office draw outside of the Bourne and Oceans franchises.  Still, he's reached a certain level of celebrity in the last two years.  You know, the kind where you can go on any late night talk show whenever you want.  The kind where you can get on the cover of People without any movie to promote.  It's called the A-list, and while Damon is no Brad Pitt, he'll certainly bring some crowds to the theater.
3. Calling your movie The Informant! instantly places it into the realm of politics.  Movies about politics are tough sells, especially these days, when people have just about had enough of our own government.  The subject matter is the biggest negative to this film's box office.

Love Happens - 1,898 theaters - $12 million
1. The reviews are terrible, the title is horrendous, and the theater count is pretty low.  But this is a romance, and romances are review-proof.  If P.S. I Love You can make $53 million, then I simply can't believe that this, a film with much more star power, will flop.
2. Jennifer Aniston is a box office draw.  She proved it with Marley And Me, The Break Up, and He's Just Not That Into You.  People don't give her the credit she deserves
3. Nights In Rodanthe opened in late September last year to $13.4 million, but that movie looked more romantic and less dour, so I think Love Happens will perform similarly.

Holdovers

Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself will plummet this weekend, as all Tyler Perry films do in their second weekend.  Don't be surprised if it undercuts by $10 million prediction.  9, meanwhile adds 399 theaters, to bring its venue count to 2,060.  That should soften it's second weekend decline, giving it a $6.3 million weekend. Here are the full box office predictions:

Box Office Predictions for September 18-20, 2009
1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs - $27 million
2. Jennifer's Body - $13 million
3. The Informant! - $12.5 million
4. Love Happens - $12 million
5. I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $10 million
6. 9 - $6.3 million
7. Inglorious Basterds - $3.6 million
8. All About Steve - $2.7 million
9. The Final Destination - $2.4 million
10. Whiteout - $2.2 million

What are your predictions?  And what do you think of mine? Let me know in the comments!

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Is "Where The Wild Things Are" Too Hipster To Be Successful?

For the past few weeks, everyone and their great aunt seems to be fawning over the trailer for Spike Jonze's Where The Wild Things Are, the much-buzzed-about film adaptation of the beloved children's book.  With synthy hipster music pumping, the trailer shows an extended montage of a boy in the famous pajama suit surrounded by whimsically wonky monsters galore.  The film-buff community is telling me I must like this.  My inner pretentious film critic is salivating.  But still, I'm just not that excited.  Here's why:

I'm a box office analyst.  I look at a film, and I say, "Is this film going to do well?  Is it going to make money?"  Oftentimes, I decide that a movie is going to be a financial disaster, and so I should therefore ignore it completely.  Take a movie like Stranger Than Fiction, a 2006 release starring Will Ferrell and Emma Thompson.  I thought it looked witty.  I thought it looked funny.  I thought it looked creative.  I was so excited!  But then it went and underperformed at the box office, earning just $40.6 million over the holiday season.  Suddenly, I wasn't so keen on seeing the film.  Now, I know that's a terrible philosophy, and artistic value should never be judged based on commercial appeal, but I think it's definitely a factor for most people.  For instance, if a TV show pulls in poor ratings in its premiere, many people will jump ship by the next episode, not wanting to commit to something that isn't popular, relevant, or successful.  It applies to movies as well, and I think that's why I'm not excited about Where The Wild Things Are: I don't believe it's going to be a big box office success.

 

Call me crazy if you want, but I don't see great box office numbers for Where The Wild Things Are when it debuts on October 16th.  This film falls very much into the category of what I like to call "hipster films," and while those films are usually artistic and interesting, they are not bona fide box office successes.  With the rare exception of Juno, most indie-music-playing, snarky-dialogue-touting, dream-sequence-filled, cartoon-title-over-a-drab-background-having, film-blog-buzzed-about, shaky-camera-shot hipster flicks aren't going to top the box office.  Yes, the fact that Where The Wild Things Are is based on an immensely popular kids book will provide some built in business, but when you watch the trailer above, does it really look like a widely appealing kids movie?

The trailer brings to mind one movie in particular: Marie Antoinette, Sofia Coppola's much talked about historical update of the famous French queen.  Both trailers are relatively dialogue-free.  Both trailers were filled by quick moving images set to quirky music.  Both trailers were talked about endlessly by the film world.  And yet, despite all the buzz, Marie Antionette only grossed $16 million back in 2006.  Other recent hipster movies that come to mind would be Garden State ($28.4 million), Adventureland ($16 million), (500) Days Of Summer ($30.2 million), and Nick And Norah's Infinite Playlist ($31.5 million).  All of these films were well-received by critics, and audiences generally liked them, yet, while these are far from box office bombs, they're not exactly smash hits either.  This is the typical fate for a hipster film: a modest, though very buzzed about, theatrical performance, followed by a solid performance on DVD from a passionate, loyal, college-aged following.

I'm expecting a similar trajectory from Where The Wild Things Are.  The numbers will be better because of the book-factor and the family-factor, but this looks like a movie made more for adults than children, and families = money at the box office.  Furthermore, it doesn't look nearly mainstream enough to be a blockbuster.  We live in a world where Alvin And The Chipmunks breaks the $200 million barrier and G-Force breaks $100 million.  There was nothing subtle or artistic about these films, and yet, this is the type of family entertainment that more average American consumers would rather watch.  Really, can you imagine a rural Kentucky audience getting super excited about Where The Wild Things Are?  I can't.  So for now, I'm not buying into the buzz.  I'm guessing that critics will love it, audiences will like it, people will watch it and feel nouve-riche for doing so, but it won't be as huge as many people are thinking.  My very early prediction is about $65-70 million.

What do you think about all this?  Is Where The Wild Things Are too hipster to break out?  Are you excited to see Spike Jonze's film?  I'll admit, some of the released shots of the film are just beautiful, but I'm not positive I'll be attending.  Let me hear your thoughts in the comments!

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List Wednesday: What's New At TBOJ!

It's Wednesday, and that means its time for the weekly "list" post, but I'm going to be honest, this post isn't a list in and of itself... it's three of them!  Actually, the content of today's post isn't located here at the blog; it's located at the actual website.  Now, some of you probably don't even know that the website exists, but I've been working hard for the last six weeks on building it up, and today I'd like to introduce you to the newest pages at TBOJ: Box Office Resources.

The Box Office Resources page will take you through some of the best box office books, websites, and magazines that are available to the modern aspiring box office analyst.  These products and services are the very things that I use to stay in-the-know when it comes to the box office.  I hope you check them out and enjoy.  And keep checking out the homepage of TBOJ as I continue to construct pages.   If you have any advice for me, I'd love to hear it!

And finally, be sure to follow TBOJ on Twitter and Subscribe to the RSS Feed to find out what's new at the site!  Next Wednesday, we'll be back with the regular lists.

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A Double Dose Of DVD Sales Charts; State Of Play... Eh, But Heroes Flies High

Somehow I missed last week's edition of The-Numbers' DVD Sales Chart, but never fear, we've got two weeks worth of DVD Sales Charts along with my DVD Sales Notes today.  Take a look:

DVD Sales Notes:

-State of Play, the star-studded political thriller with Russell Crowe and Ben Affleck that failed to take off at the box office (it earned $37 million) didn't make a huge splash in its first week on the home market.  Sure, it earned a number one debut with 344,745 units sold, but it was a very slow week for DVD Sales, and its $5.5 million worth of sales was actually third in terms of pure dollars for the week.

-Sci-Fi television on DVD is a hot commodity right now.  Heroes - Season Three had the best total sales this week with about $11.1 million.  Supernatural - The Complete Fourth Season was not far behind with $8.7 million.  Both grosses are solid starts for the DVD sets.  Still, neither of these feats can even touch True Blood: The Complete First Season, which increased by 44.8% and 11.9% over the past two weeks, as the second season drew to a close on TV.   Thus far, the set has sold about 1.49 million copies for a $51.9 million total!  These sci-fi successes bode well for the releases of CW's Vampire Diaries (which is already a success), and ABC's FlashForward and V.  As Star Trek proved this Summer, science fiction is in a very profitable place right now.

-TV comedies, however, did not fare so well.  Two And A Half Men - The Complete Sixth Season found $2.4 million, which, in my opinion, is $2.4 million too much.  That show is awful.  Desperate Housewives - The Complete Fifth Season sold fewer copies, though it was more expensive, and it grossed $2.9 million.  Comedies are palatable and widely accessible, but they don't have the fanboys!

-Hannah Montana The Movie continues its solid run, and with almost 2 million units sold, it's raked in a terrific $33.2 million  for Disney thus far.  But then, does this surprise you?

-Bring It On: Fight To The Finish sold 254,456 copies for sales of $4.3 million, proving that there is still an audience for these direct-to-DVD spinoffs about cheerleading.  With a few more weeks of solid sales and an inevitable MTV deal down the road, why not keep pumping out these pictures and finding a small profit?

Both charts are below:

Top DVD Sales for the Week Ending September 6, 2009

Rank	Title	Units this Week	Change	Total Units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Wks
1	State of Play	344,745	-.-%	344,745	$5,512,473	$5,512,473	1
2	Heroes - Season Three	296,170	-.-%	296,170	$11,103,413	$11,103,413	1
3	Hannah Montana The Movie	269,349	-41.4%	1,961,734	$4,710,914	$33,240,346	3
4	Bring It On: Fight to the Finish	254,456	-.-%	254,456	$4,323,207	$4,323,207	1
5	Supernatural - The Complete Fourth Season	238,081	-.-%	238,081	$8,670,910	$8,670,910	1
6	Disney Nature Earth	206,192	-.-%	206,192	$3,503,202	$3,503,202	1
7	Two and a Half Men - The Complete Sixth Season	100,493	-.-%	100,493	$2,360,581	$2,360,581	1
8	Fighting	95,563	-66.0%	376,277	$1,910,304	$6,398,921	2
9	House, M.D. - Season Five	92,909	-63.1%	344,895	$3,702,424	$10,503,526	2
10	Duplicity	90,944	-66.3%	360,764	$1,648,815	$5,963,237	2
11	I Love You, Man	82,497	-29.8%	1,086,833	$1,513,820	$18,321,055	4
12	The Last House on the Left	80,670	-43.7%	565,703	$1,733,598	$11,644,391	3
13	Fast And Furious	78,671	-6.8%	2,660,318	$1,191,622	$44,163,257	6
14	Desperate Housewives - The Complete Fifth Season	78,085	-.-%	78,085	$2,927,407	$2,927,407	1
15	Adventureland	77,912	-57.0%	258,972	$1,518,505	$4,813,797	2
16	17 Again	72,396	-32.1%	1,037,072	$1,429,770	$18,939,841	4
17	NCIS: The Complete Sixth Season	70,537	-50.6%	213,261	$2,503,358	$7,568,633	2
18	Race to Witch Mountain	64,260	-7.6%	1,273,354	$1,242,062	$22,655,408	5
19	True Blood: The Complete First Season	62,123	11.9%	1,490,665	$2,164,987	$51,938,565	16
20	Dexter - The Complete Third Season	57,331	-46.1%	461,276	$1,989,386	$11,127,154	3
21	Watchmen	56,814	1.9%	2,103,190	$1,218,592	$44,027,040	7
22	Smallville: The Complete Eighth Season	55,435	-73.1%	261,776	$2,022,823	$9,552,206	2
23	Terry Fator: Live from Las Vegas	53,367	-.-%	53,367	$540,608	$540,608	1
24	Obsessed	53,076	5.8%	920,387	$928,299	$15,443,049	5
25	Coraline	46,299	-12.9%	1,768,351	$909,697	$32,775,990	7
26	The Soloist	44,072	-25.7%	448,142	$717,492	$7,577,465	5
27	Sunshine Cleaning	39,000	-64.9%	150,146	$821,340	$2,773,064	2
28	One Tree Hill: The Complete Sixth Season	38,943	-68.3%	161,948	$1,401,559	$5,828,509	2
29	Scrubs: The Complete Eighth Season	34,716	-68.3%	144,299	$902,269	$3,750,331	2
30	Sons of Anarchy - Season One	31,512	-37.0%	171,732	$1,008,069	$5,493,707	3

Top DVD Sales for the Week Ending September 30, 2009

Rank	Title	Units this Week	Change	Total Units	Sales this Week	Total Sales	Wks
1	Hannah Montana The Movie	459,660	-62.7%	1,692,385	$7,942,925	$28,529,432	2
2	Fighting	280,714	-.-%	280,714	$4,488,617	$4,488,617	1
3	Duplicity	269,820	-.-%	269,820	$4,314,422	$4,314,422	1
4	House, M.D. - Season Five	251,986	-.-%	251,986	$6,801,102	$6,801,102	1
5	Smallville: The Complete Eighth Season	206,341	-.-%	206,341	$7,529,383	$7,529,383	1
6	Adventureland	181,060	-.-%	181,060	$3,295,292	$3,295,292	1
7	The Last House on the Left	143,322	-58.1%	485,033	$3,079,990	$9,910,793	2
8	NCIS: The Complete Sixth Season	142,724	-.-%	142,724	$5,065,275	$5,065,275	1
9	One Tree Hill: The Complete Sixth Season	123,005	-.-%	123,005	$4,426,950	$4,426,950	1
10	I Love You, Man	117,535	-44.4%	1,004,336	$2,114,455	$16,807,235	3
11	Sunshine Cleaning	111,146	-.-%	111,146	$1,951,724	$1,951,724	1
12	Scrubs: The Complete Eighth Season	109,583	-.-%	109,583	$2,848,062	$2,848,062	1
13	17 Again	106,641	-40.4%	964,676	$2,081,462	$17,510,070	3
14	Dexter - The Complete Third Season	106,365	-64.3%	403,945	$3,061,185	$9,137,768	2
15	WWE: The Rise and Fall of WCW	87,565	-.-%	87,565	$2,056,902	$2,056,902	1
16	Fast & Furious	84,394	-18.2%	2,581,647	$1,315,112	$42,971,635	5
17	Race to Witch Mountain	69,547	-31.5%	1,209,094	$1,309,396	$21,413,346	4
18	The Simpsons - The Complete Twelfth Season	60,813	-63.5%	227,601	$1,945,408	$7,280,956	2
19	The Soloist	59,305	2.4%	404,070	$939,984	$6,859,973	4
20	Corpse Bride, The	58,423	37.4%	-	$514,707	-	187
21	Watchmen	55,757	-9.9%	2,046,376	$1,276,869	$42,808,448	6
22	True Blood: The Complete First Season	55,527	44.8%	1,428,542	$1,942,890	$49,773,578	15
23	Coraline	53,183	-20.7%	1,722,052	$1,028,086	$31,866,294	6
24	Obsessed	50,149	-29.1%	867,311	$877,106	$14,514,750	4
25	Sons of Anarchy - Season One	49,985	-44.6%	140,220	$1,599,020	$4,485,638	2
26	Gossip Girl: The Complete Second Series	43,380	-58.4%	147,669	$1,626,316	$5,409,921	2
27	Twilight	34,206	0.2%	9,123,018	$544,560	$163,775,902	23
28	Knowing	30,584	-11.1%	1,406,774	$471,605	$21,136,515	8
29	Push	29,776	-.-%	860,784	$459,146	$13,685,313	8
30	The Haunting in Connecticut	27,939	-6.0%	826,655	$476,377	$16,386,518	7

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