Fast, Furious, And Front-Loaded

on Thursday, April 09, 2009  

Current chart-topper, Fast And Furious, earned $30.5 million on its first Friday, on the way to a massive $70.9 million in its opening weekend. That represents a pretty low internal multiplier of 2.32. For those uninitiated to internal multipliers, they are calculated by simply dividing the total weekend gross by the Friday gross. So in this case, $70.9 million/$30.5 million = 2.32 internal multiplier. In general, a fairly typical internal multiplier is about 3.0. Often you'll see a family film garner a higher multiplier of about 3.5-4.0, and often you'll see teen and horror films earn something closer to a 2.0-2.5. These internal multipliers are helpful in figuring out the overall multiplier for a film, which is the total gross divided by the opening weekend. (For example, if a film earns $75 million total after opening to $25 million, it would have a multiplier of 3.0, which is again the standard multiplier for most movies.) Internal multipliers pretty much match up with overall multipliers, so I'd expect something around a 2.3 multiplier for Fast And Furious, giving it about $165-170 million when all is said and done.

I only bring this up because I was looking at the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday box office for Fast And Furious (found right here), and it's front-loadedness is already quite apparent. Whereas most films saw a 10% increase on Tuesday, F&F fell 9%, and when the rest of the pack fell about 6% on Wednesday, F&F fell 17%. A lot of this is due to the fact that the film opened so huge, and trust me, Universal is more than satisfied with the amount of money Vin Diesel and Paul Walker are raking in, but I expect it to fall pretty quickly from here.

How much do you think Fast And Furious will earn overall?

1 comments:

Alex said...

A multiplier of 3 is actually very uncommon in this day and age for this kind of movie so I have to disagree there. But I have to say those numbers surprised me a lot since I never saw them coming, not by a long shot.

I think your pretty much spot on with that 165-170 prediction.

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