Going on Hiatus

Hey guys, I've loved getting to talk about the movies for the last two months with all of you, but due to the massive time requirements that running this website entails, and the lack of compensation, I am going to have to discontinue my work on The Box Office Junkie. It simply takes too much of my time to receive nothing in return, and I'm far too busy at this stage in my life to keep the site going.

Maybe one day I'll set up the site again, but not for a good, long while. This isn't a decision I like making, but it's a necessary one for my stress levels and sanity. Anyway, to anyone that ever read the site, thanks. I really appreciate all your interest.

Peace,

Grady

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Tom Cruise: Killing His Career One Day At A Time!

He's always smiled a little too wide. He's always laughed a little too hard. And that's why we liked him. But when Tom Cruise acts overly cheery (and entirely arrogant) while talking about his cult religion of scientology, he comes off like a maniac. The clip above has been spreading around the internet like crazy over the past few days. Have you seen this video? Very creepy.

But I'm not just reporting on a pop culture event- this actually does relate to the box office. You see, Tom Cruise used to be the biggest box office star alive (now that title belongs to Will Smith), but in the last two years, he has committed career suicide. Whether jumping on Oprah's couch, professing his love for his Stepford wife, Katie Holmes, lashing out at Matt Lauer about prescription drugs, or raving about Scientology like some kind of lunatic, Tom Cruise has taken every precaution to make sure that he's totally unlikable, and his career is suffering big time. Take a look at what I mean:

1986-1996

After his breakout debut in Risky Business in 1983, audiences were hungry for more of this charismatic, up-and-coming actor, and Tom Cruise saw some tremendous box office successes in the years to come and carved out his place on the A-list. Here are a few examples:

1996 Top Gun - $176 million

1988 Rain Man - $172 million

1992 A Few Good Men - $141 million

1993 The Firm - $158 million

1994 Interview With The Vampire - $105 million

1996 Mission Impossible - $180 million

1996 Jerry Maguire - $153 million

1997-1999

Tom took a break for a few years, but returned with two films in 1999 in search of some critical acclaim. The results were pretty good. Eyes Wide Shut did quite well for such a controversial and risque film, earning $55 million, while Magnolia earned a modest, but strong $22 million. Cruise even got himself a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor in 2000. Now that he'd again proved his acting chops, his next step was to conquer the box office once and for all...

2000-2005

The next seven films Tom Cruise released were massive hits. Mission: Impossible 2 kicked off the new millennium in a big way with a massive $215 million gross. Each of his following films broke $100 million dollars, and they solidified him as the single most famous, bankable (highest paid) star in the business. His consistency was simply unmatched.

2000 Mission: Impossible 2 - $215 million

2001 Vanilla Sky - $100 million

2002 Minority Report - $132 million

2003 The Last Samuari - $111 million

2004 Collateral - $100 million

2005 The War of the Worlds - $234 million

2005-2007

Unfortunately, in 2005, Tom did a lot more than just release a movie. He had his whole couch-jumping incident with Oprah, then he fell madly (like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde mad...) in love with Katie Holmes, then he lashed out at Matt Lauer about prescription drugs, and now he has embarked on a crusade for Scientology. In just two years, his public image has been almost entirely destroyed, and this is reflected in the box office of his latest two films.

Mission: Impossible 3, despite pulling in the best reviews of the franchise, struggled at the box office. It earned just $133 million, which represents a massive 38% slide from M:I2's $215 million gross. Sure, M:I3 made over $100 million dollars, but this drop was not a good sign. Long-time partner Paramount quickly dropped Cruise from their studio's payroll. In 2007, Tom came out with Lions for Lambs, and what do you know? It bombed. The United Artists (Cruise's own studio) wide release couldn't even hit $15 million.

2008-

I have little hope for Tom Cruise saving his career. Based on the above video, he just seems to keep getting crazier by the day. United Artists' next release is Valkyrie, which was recently pushed back from its summer release date to October 2008. I'm highly doubting that it will be successful, and I think I speak for all of us when I say, "Bring the old Tom Cruise back!"

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We're Sad To See You Go, Heath

     It's always a sad day in Hollywood when a truly great actor is lost, and on Tuesday, we lost one of our most promising actors.  Heath Ledger was found dead in his New York apartment yesterday, and I'm sure you've seen the story on the news by now.  Say whatever you want about the man's personal life (he had a few issues), but he could act, and since he kept a low profile, he was always most notable for his acting skills than tabloid fodder.  Whether belting a ballad from the bleachers in 10 Things I Hate About You, fighting for his brother and country in The Patriot, or mourning his unfulfilled love of Jack Twist in Brokeback Mountain, Heath Ledger took chances and impressed audiences everywhere.  I can say, without a doubt, that his performance as Ennis Del Mar in 2005's Brokeback Mountain will go down as one of the riskiest, restrained, powerful performances of our time.  Presently, Heath can be seen portraying Bob Dylan in He's Not There, and this summer, he can be seen in his final role as the Joker in The Dark Knight.  Heath Ledger was just 28 years old, and he will be terribly missed.  Rest in peace.

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Weekend Fix: Fanboys And Girly Girls Run The Box Office

This weekend at the box office, 2008 continued to trounce 2007, thanks mostly to the huge debut of Cloverfield, and 27 Dresses' solid bridesmaid performance. Over three days, the Top 12 films earned a fantastic $131.8 million, which represents a 24% increase over last weekend, and an enormous 84% over the same weekend last year. This is made even more eye-popping when you factor in the holiday weekend. Over four days, the Top 12 churned out $157.2 million in ticket sales. Where did this box office surge come from? The fanboys.

Monster movie Cloverfield stomped onto the scene and claimed first place this weekend, grossing a huge $46 million over four days. The super-secretive Paramount picture proved that if a trailer can truly whet an audience's appetite, they'll show up to get their fill when it debuts. The fanboys (self-included here) have been raving about Cloverfield for months now, excitedly anticipating it in forums across the web. All that excitement translated into big box office for the J.J. Abrams produced project, which broke the record for best three-day opening in January, but I'm expecting Cloverfield to fall pretty quickly. Movies that appeal to the movie-geek community (still self-included) usually open big and fall fast. We saw it last month with AVP:R, and we'll see it (to a lesser extent) with Cloverfield. The trend is already apparent in its opening weekend: After a $16.8 million opening day, the film fell 17% on Saturday, which implies front-loadedness. Still, with good reviews, a widely-appealing story, an $11,738 (three day) venue average, and an innovative spin on the monster movie, Cloverfield shouldn't have much trouble crossing the $100 million mark some time in the future. In second place, the romantic comedy 27 Dresses earned about $1 million for each of the dresses in its title, garnering a sweet $27.3 million four-day gross. This is great news for both of the film's leads, for Katherine Heigl's star continues to rise, and James Marsden proved that he can open a movie as the romantic lead. The one-two punch of Cloverfield and 27 Dresses reminds me very much of June 30, 2006, a weekend when Superman Returns opened with $52.5 million, and chick flick The Devil Wears Prada came in second with $27.5 million. (Coincidentally, Prada and Dresses were written by the same woman, who must have a knack for penning girly movies that open well against action films.) After that weekend, The Devil Wears Prada ended up having way better legs than Superman Returns, finishing with $124.5 million versus Superman's $200 million, and while 27 Dresses probably won't reach these heights (it will have trouble pulling in any men), I wouldn't be surprised if it finished with a total very similar to Cloverfield's. Its three day per theater average of $7,442 is strong, and Fox has got to be happy with these results.

In third place, The Bucket List pulled in $16.1 million over the holiday weekend. Showing some fairly promising endurance, the three-day gross only fell 28% from last week, though the Morgan Freeman/Jack Nicholson comedy's three-day venue average of $4,806 was just alright. Still, with $43.7 million after ten days, Warner Brothers' The Bucket List is doing quite well, and that makes me pretty happy. Any time old actors can prove themselves at the box office, I'm thrilled. Juno, the little comedy that could, came in fourth place this weekend, grossing $12 million over the four day period. Over the three-day weekend, the widely released indie darling (finally) started to show some very slight signs of its age, dropping 27% and earning a $3,917 venue average, which is actually still fairly strong. Fox Searchlight has platformed Juno gradually with amazingly effective results. The teen pregnancy comedy has earned a tremendous $87.1 million over seven weekends.

First Sunday fell hard this weekend, earning just $9.4 million. Over the three-day frame, the "Hey, let's rob a church!" comedy had a low $3,525 per theater average and fell an alarming 56%, which is pretty awful, since the four day weekend usually leads to soft declines. Still, ScreenGems (who reached a similar audience with last year's This Christmas) will ultimately be pleased with First Sunday's performance. After two weekends, it's earned $30.1 million.

In sixth place, Disney's juggernaut National Treasure: Book of Secrets continued its great run with another $9.4 million over four days. This is and always was money in the bank for Disney, and after five weekends, the Nicholas Cage adventure film has earned $199.6 million.

Mad Money, the estrogen-heavy heist film starring Diane Keaton, Katie Holmes, and Queen Latifah, opened poorly, stealing just $9.2 million over the holiday weekend. Unable to convince many women to watch a robbery film, Mad Money lost most of its audience to 27 Dresses. The comedy earned terrible reviews and had a weak $3,022 venue average over the three-day weekend, and it should disappear from the Top 12 faster than some shredded money from the Federal Reserve.

In eighth and ninth place are constant companions Alvin and the Chipmunks and I Am Legend, respectively. The former held better than the latter, and Alvin scooped up $9.2 million, while I Am Legend earned $5.7 million. After six weekends, the CGI rodent comedy has earned $198.6 million, and the Will Smith apocalyptic thriller has earned $248.3 million.

Atonement held onto the tenth place spot, earning a $5.7 million in the holiday weekend after its Golden Globe win for Best Picture. Helped by its expansion into 1,291 theaters, Atonement increased 13% over the three-day weekend, and it earned a $3,687 per theater average. The period piece has been a great performer for Focus Features, and it will have no trouble breaking $50 million in the weeks to come. If it wins some Oscars (that is, if there are any Oscars this year...) it could go very far.

The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything managed to hang on to a spot in the Top 12 this weekend, earning $3.6 million over four days. The entirely overlooked Universal release from the VeggieTales has grossed a tiny $8.5 million after two weekends.

Providing a nice surprise at the end of the Top 12, There Will Be Blood earned $3.5 million. The Paramount Vantage film has received lots of awards attention for Daniel Day-Lewis' performance, and with a strong $7,416 per theater average, it should be around for a good while. Thus far, in just 260 theaters, it has earned a very encouraging $8.6 million.

Top 12 for January 18-21

#	Movie Title	Weekend Gross	Total
1	Cloverfield	$46,037,000	$46,037,000
2	27 Dresses	$27,270,000	$27,270,000
3	The Bucket List	$16,110,000	$43,669,000
4	Juno	$12,000,000	$87,125,533
5	First Sunday	$9,400,000	$30,066,000
6	Nation Treasure: Book of Secrets	$9,359,000	$199,242,000
7	Mad Money	$9,200,000	$9,200,000
8	Alvin and the Chipmunks	$9,200,000	$198,580,181
9	I Am Legend	$5,715,000	$248,292,000
10	Atonement	$5,690,199	$32,815,005
11	The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything	$3,631,400	$8,518,310
12	There Will Be Blood	$3,541,000	$8,575,000

All Numbers Courtesy of Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc.

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Three-Day Estimates: Cloverfield Stomps All Over Competition

     One of the most important things for a box office analyst to be able to do is recognize when the movie business is changing.  Sometimes, films just don't behave the way you think they're going to, and you must realize that the traditional box office behavior of yesteryear may no longer apply.  This seems to be the case with January.  With fantastic performances from Cloverfield, 27 Dresses, and The Bucket List (one of the films which I egregiously underestimated this weekend), January has become a totally viable month for studios to release big titles, leaving poor September as the worst month of the year.  This weekend proves that with solid marketing and a catchy concept, a movie can open well at any time of the year.  Fueled primarily by Cloverfield's record breaking opening (highest ever in January!), this year's three-day weekend was huge, blowing past 2007's grosses.  Check back in tomorrow for the four-day weekend analysis.

Three-Day Estimates for January 18-20

1. Cloverfield - $41 million

2. 27 Dresses - $22.4 million

3. The Bucket List - $15.2 million

4. Juno - $10.3 million

5. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $8.1 million

6. First Sunday - $7.8 million

7. Mad Money - $7.7 million

8. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $7 million

9. I Am Legend - $5.1 million

10. Atonement - $4.8 million

11. There Will Be Blood - $3.1 million

12. One Missed Call - $2.8 million

All numbers courtesy of Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc.

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Friday Estimates: Cloverfield Has Monster Sized Box Office

     What month are we in again?  January?  Really?  Alright, but last time I checked, January was one of the worst months of the year in terms of box office.  With Cloverfield and 27 Dresses' fantastic opening day grosses, it looks like times must be really changing.  At least Mad Money is behaving normally...

     Cloverfield exploded onto the scene with an awesome $16.8 million on Friday.  Paramount's experimental advertising campaign has paid off in a big way.  I'm expecting this one to be very frontloaded, so a 3.0 multiplier over four days could be in order.  Still, this would give Cloverfield an amazing $49 million over the holiday weekend.

     In the appropriate bridesmaid position on the chart, 27 Dresses will claim the second place position on the chart.  On Friday, the Katherine Heigl/James Marsden rom-com earned a delightful $7.7 million.  Just like opening Alvin and the Chipmunks against I Am Legend, Fox counter-programmed this film very well, and 27 Dresses should match my prediction of $27 million over the next three days.

     Way back in fifth place, Overture Films' flagship title, Mad Money, got off to a disappointing start.  The lame comedy featuring Diane Keaton, Katie Holmes, and Queen Latifah (who only seems to find success as part of an ensemble) earned a meager $2.3 million on its first day, and it will only find about $7 million overall.

     The rest of the chart should behave pretty much as predicted, though with just $2.2 million yesterday, First Sunday is falling harder than expected.  The real surprise on the chart, though, comes from There Will Be Blood.  Hot on the heels of Daniel Day-Lewis' Golden Globe win for Best Actor, the stunningly reviewed Paramount Vantage release popped in at twelfth place on Friday with $0.8 million.  In only 389 theaters, it could be looking at a strong $3 million weekend.

     Alright, tomorrow I'll post some three-day estimates, but there won't be any analysis.  Because of the four day weekend, the Weekend Fix will be up on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

Friday Estimates for January 18

1. Cloverfield - $16.8 million

2. 27 Dresses - $7.7 million

3. The Bucket List - $4.2 million

4. Juno - $3.1 million

5. Mad Money - $2.3 million

6. First Sunday - $2.2 million

7. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $2.1 million

8. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $1.6 million

9. I Am Legend - $1.4 million

10. Atonement - $1.3 million

11. One Missed Call - $890,000

12. There Will Be Blood - $820,000

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Weekend Preview: Is Cloverfield The New Snakes On A Plane?

     Hey, fellow Box Office Junkies!  Sorry for the lack of posts this week- life's been utterly crazy for the past few days, and I haven't been able to update nearly as much as I've wanted to.  Luckily for you, though, everything is back on track today with this Weekend Preview.  I have to confess, because of the sheer amount of analysis that a certain monster movie has required me to do, I'm only going to be writing about the three new releases this week, but you can see my full Top 12 predictions at the end of the post.  Suffice it to say, January 2008 should remain very well ahead of January 2007 in this third weekend of the year.  Alright, let's get started.

     Remember way back in 2006 when a little movie called Snakes On A Plane debuted?  You know, the one where Samuel L. Jackson yelled the famous line, "I have had it with these mother f***ing snakes on this mother f***ing plane!"  Greeted with an absolutely deafening amount of online buzz, from the moment Snakes On A Plane (Whoa- you can abbreviate with SOAP!) debuted its title, it had what seemed to be an endless legion of die-hard online fans who could not wait to see the movie as soon as it came out.  It was the first virally promoted film to take full advantage of the tech-savvy blogging community, as almost all the excitement and anticipation for SOAP came from the web.  Box office analysts were expecting a huge opening and a great box office total.  After all, we'd never seen a movie with this kind of online excitement behind it.

     Well, when SOAP finally debuted on August 18, 2006, analysts quickly realized that judging the movie's potential success based on internet buzz was a mistake.  Snakes opened with a disappointing $15.2 million, and then went on to a totally underwhelming $34.5 million.  It was one of the biggest letdowns in recent history, based on the gigantic expectations.  How is this all relevant, you ask?  Well, the reason I bring this up now is that there is another film hitting screens today that has followed a very similar viral-crazed path of promotion: Cloverfield.

          The brain child of hotshot producer J.J. Abrams (the creator of the TV series Lost), Cloverfield is a super-secretive monster flick that's been buzzed about since its very first trailer, which featured that glorious shot of the Statue of Liberty's head falling onto the street in NYC.  Bloggers and fanboys have been raving for months anticipating the film, and awareness for Cloverfield is very high.  Judging by the apparent excitement on the web, it would seem that this mystery-monster-movie was poised to open with the kind of numbers that many people expected SOAP to start with.  But will it similarly disappoint?  I don't think so, and here's why:

     Cloverfield's marketing contains one essential ingredient that SOAP's lacked, and that is mystery!  People who went to see Snakes on a Plane got exactly what title said they would get: snakes on a plane.  Cloverfield, on the other hand, is totally mysterious.  What does this monster look like?  Is it anything like Godzilla?  How tall is it?  Does it get killed?  Does it destroy all of New York?  Why does it decapitate Lady Liberty?  Curiosity is going to drive a lot of people into the theaters this weekend, and it helps that Cloverfield is not so clearly a B-movie for geeks only.

     Also, Cloverfield is a proven formula with a slight tweak.  Special-effects-driven disaster movies have impressed time and time again at the box office (Jurassic Park, The Day After Tomorrow, I Am Legend to name a few), and Cloverfield's slight tweak of a familiar story should keep the crowds coming.  Also setting this film apart is its unique photography style.  Supposedly captured entirely on the protagonists home video, Cloverfield takes a page out of The Blair Witch Project's book with a shaky cam style.  Some critics hate this, but most are praising the film for the freshness it brings to the table, and it's getting some very good reviews.  Personally, I think the shaky cam can get a bit annoying (Paul Greengrass, can we just watch Jason Bourne fight sometimes?!), but I appreciate the stylistic chance that Cloverfield is taking with it.  All of this is to say that I think that Cloverfield's opening (and the second weekend drop) is going to be big.  Launching onto 3,411 theaters, Cloverfield might find about $39 million in three days, and $47 million over the extended weekend (because of MLK Day), easily giving it the #1 spot.

     The other big opener this weekend is Fox's romantic comedy 27 Dresses, which should do some very solid business with women this weekend.  Starring Katherine Heigl, who's hot off her debut in Knocked Up, and James Marsden, who actually isn't the third wheel here, 27 Dresses tells the story of a woman who has been a bridesmaid 27 times.  Just when it looks like her love life is hopeless, she suddenly finds herself falling in love with her own sister's fiancee.  The story is a fresh one, and Fox, which has been pushing this film hard, has done a great job of selling the story.  It looks like the massive amounts of advertising should pay off.  Heigl, already popular with women because of her role on TV's Grey's Anatomy, proved her comedic chops with Knocked Up last summer, and while 27 Dresses is not pulling in anywhere near the kind of reviews that that movie received, her rising star should help the romantic comedy debut well.  James Marsden has never carried a movie as a leading man, so it will be interesting to see how he fares.  In March 2006, the Sarah Jessica Parker/Matthew McConaughey feature Failure To Launch debuted to $24.4 million on its way to a fantastic $88.7 million total, and it looks like 27 Dresses could surpass that performance.  Walking down the aisle in 3,057 theaters, 27 Dresses should earn about $27 million over the four-day weekend.

     And then we have Mad Money, the female heist film about robbing the Federal Reserve.   Proving that Hollywood doesn't have any roles for older women, Mad Money stars Diane Keaton as a down-on-her-luck janitor at the Federal Reserve, who pairs up with sassy Queen Latifah and ditzy Katie Holmes to steal a huge load of cash that's meant to be shredded up and recycled.  Critics are trashing the film (who would've thought that Katie Holmes could get an even more negative response for this than her role in Batman Begins?), calling it unfunny and implausible.  The excitement meter is very low for this one, and of the three leading ladies, only Keaton has any real drawing power.  The main problem for this film is that 27 Dresses will be the primary choice for women this weekend.  The aforementioned romantic comedy will provide direct competition for Mad Money, which is the first release for fledgling studio Overture Films.  Unfortunately, the young studio will probably be mad at how little money Mad Money makes.  Entering into 2,470 theaters, the female heist comedy might earn a small $8.5 million over the holiday weekend.

 

Predicted Top Twelve for January 18-21

1. Cloverfield - $47 million

2. 27 Dresses - $27 million

3. The Bucket List - $12.6 million

4. Juno - $11 million

5. First Sunday - $10.3 million

6. Mad Money - $8.5  million

7. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $6.7 million 

8. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $6.5 million

9. Atonement - $5 million

10. I Am Legend - $4.9 million

11. One Missed Call - $2.9 million

12. P.S. I Love You - $2.6 million

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Golden Globe Winners Come From All Over The Globe

     In case you weren't one of the people who tuned into the hour long half-hour press conference that announced the Golden Globes recipients, here's a rundown of the winners.  I've listed the big categories below, but check out the full list of winners here.

     My reactions?  All the winners are very deserving.  The choices might be a bit out of touch with the average American's movie taste (no love for Juno?), but that's the case every year.  What really strikes me is the internationalization of the award winners.  This year, it looks like the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has earnestly tried to live up to its name, presenting a very European list of victors.  Atonement is a British film, and Julie Christie, and Daniel Day-Lewis both hail from England as well.  La Vie En Rose's Marion Cotillard and Julian Schabel's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly are both French imports.  Finally, Javier Bardem (pictured), winner of Best Supporting Actor - Drama, hails from Spain.

     Hollywood has been emphasizing the globalization of the film world for a while now (most notably with the incessant glorification of Babel last year), but these Golden Globes are a clear sign that Americans are very slowly beginning to accept foreign films as credible works of art.  

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Atonement

Best Actress - Drama
Julie Christie Away From Her

Best Actor - Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Sweeney Todd

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Marion Cotillard La Vie En Rose

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Johnny Depp Sweeney Todd

Best Director
Julian Schnabel The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

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Weekend Fix: Bucket List On Top, First Sunday Strong

    Four new films opened this weekend.  Two did quite well, but two did quite poorly.  In the end, though, the box office this weekend was very healthy for January, which is usually a tragic month in terms of dollars.  The Top 12 films earned a nice $108.8 million, which represents an understandable 35% drop from last weekend, when many kids had not yet gone back to school.  Year to year, however, things looked much brighter, as the Top 12 were up 12% from last year's frame, when dance drama Stomp The Yard led the charts with $21.8 million.

     Debuting in the top spot, The Bucket List reaffirmed that when it comes to the box office, going by the formula can be a good choice.  With a feel-good concept, an easily understood (and advertised) story, and some true blue film stars, The Bucket List was full of life, earning $19.5 million over the weekend.    The film's entire advertising campaign was based around its two leading men, and in this case, the strategy proved very effective because these two men are movie stars, and not just celebrities.  Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson are famous because of their film work- not because of tabloid fodder, and because of this, they can successfully open a film.  Consequently, stars like Lindsay Lohan, Jessica Alba, and Angelina Jolie are inconsistent at the box office because people care more about their personal lives than their acting skills.  For The Bucket List, moviegoers flocked to the theaters to watch Freeman and Nicholson interact, and there are very few actors who still have that kind of drawing power.  The Warner Brothers buddy comedy had a good, though unspectacular, venue average of $6,750.  Reviews largely criticize the film for being too schmaltzy, but audiences love cheesy, feel-good tearjerkers, and this could have some pretty good legs.  Based on the opening, I'm thinking The Bucket List might end its run around $80 million, but you'll have to stay tuned to find out.

     In second place, First Sunday opened with a very good $19 million, proving for the umpteenth time that the African American market is lucrative and underutilized by Hollywood.  The ScreenGems film starring Ice Cube and Tracy Morgan had a great $8,586 per theater average, which was the best in the Top 12.  Bad reviews didn't have an effect on First Sunday's opening, and since it was targeted a young audience, their negative effect should be minimal; however, this is not to say it will endure for very long.  Movies that target African American audiences tend to have horrible legs at the box office, and I'm expecting this to top off at about $50 million, which would still represent a respectable total.

    Indie darling Juno came in at third.  The Ellen Page comedy that won no Golden Globes(!) pulled in a sturdy $14 million this weekend, giving it $71.2 million overall.  This total means that Juno is just $0.3 million away from passing Sideways as Fox Searchlight's highest grossing film ever, and it should earn that title on Monday.  Though Juno expanded into 2,448 theaters this weekend, it dropped 12% from the last frame, but this is nothing to worry about.  In its sixth weekend, it still managed a very good $5,719 venue average, and the teen pregnancy comedy has a lot of life left in it.  According to last week's poll, 20% of you think that Juno will not break $100 million, but I'm going to have to say that you are sorely incorrect.  It seems headed for a $120+ million finish.

     In fourth, fifth, and sixth, we have the big three holiday films that have dominated the box office (and this blog) for weeks.  Down 43% from last weekend, Disney's National Treasure: Book of Secrets found another $11.5 million, giving it a strong $187.3 million after four weekends.  Meanwhile, Fox's Alvin and the Chipmunks fell 41% to $9.1 million, which gives the rodent comedy a $187.7 million total after five weeks.  Also in its fifth weekend, Warner Brothers' I Am Legend pulled in $8.1 million, a 48% drop.  With $240.2 million overall, I Am Legend is set to become Will Smith's second-highest grossing film behind Independence Day ($306 million).

     In its second weekend, One Missed Call behaved exactly like most other derivative horror movies, dropping a large 51% to $6.1 million.  This drop was the steepest in the Top 12, which is not surprising given the reviews (it 0/53 with critics!).  The Warner Brothers film had a weak $2,737 per theater average, and it will disappear from theaters and memories in the very near future.  After two weeks, One Missed Call has earned $20.6 million.

     You know how I said that tearjerkers have great legs at the box office?  P.S. I Love You is a prime example of this.  The weapy Hilary Swank romance earned $5 million this weekend, down just 36% from the previous frame.  Its venue average of $2,155 is nothing to get excited about, but this is a Warner Brothers film that has done very well for itself.  After opening with an awful $6.5 million, P.S. I Love You has really caught on with audiences, for when it comes to romantic movies, reviews often don't line up with the collective consciousness (case in point: The Notebook).  After four weekends, it's pulled in a very solid $47 million.

     Back in ninth place, The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything opened poorly with just $4.4 million.  With a low theater count of 1,337, and a low per theater average of $3,305, the VeggieTales picture will certainly finish below Jonah's $25.5 million total, and it won't last in theaters for long.   This is a disappointing start for the Universal film.

     Atonement expanded into 950 theaters this weekend, and it pulled in $4.3 million, down a small 15% from last weekend.  This Focus Features film has quietly earned $25.2 million so far, and its Golden Globe win for Best Picture on Sunday will certainly help it in the weeks to come.  (By the way, watch this this lovely interview from EW.com with Keira Knightley and James McAvoy.  It's nice to see actors who act to tell stories, not to get awards or fame...)

     Charlie Wilson's War, the Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts film that just didn't quite click, fell 47% to $4.3 million this weekend.  With a low $1,775 venue average, Charlie Wilson's War should start shedding theaters pretty quickly now.  The Universal film has earned a moderately disappointing $59.5 million after four weekends.

     In the number twelve spot, Sweeney Todd (which picked up a Best Picture - Musical or Comedy and Best Actor award on Sunday) falls 39% to $3.4 million over the last three days.  With $44.1 million in four weekends, it will be interesting to see how much further the DreamWorks musical can go now that it has received some major awards attention.

    The final new opener, In The Name Of The King: A Dungeon Siege Tale, debuted outside the Top 12 with a tiny $3.3 million, and a paltry $2,002 per theater average.  I'm rather proud of North America for its blatant rejection of Uwe Boll's latest terribly reviewed film.  Though this will be his most unsuccessful film to date, I'm sure it will result in an even bigger budget for his next one...

     Next weekend should be very interesting.  We've got Katherine Heigl and James Marsden in the romantic comedy 27 Dresses, the uber-hyped old-school monster movie, Cloverfield, and the female heist flick, Mad Money.  Check back on Friday for the Weekend Preview.

Top 12 for January 11-13

#	Movie Title	Weekend Gross	Total
1	The Bucket List	$19,540,000	$20,964,000
2	First Sunday	$19,000,000	$19,000,000
3	Juno	$14,000,000	$71,249,796
4	National Treasure: Book of Secrets	$11,482,000	$187,295,000
5	Alvin and the Chipmunks	$9,100,000	$187,740,479
6	I Am Leged	$8,130,000	$240,234,000
7	One Missed Call	$6,130,000	$20,642,000
8	P.S. I Love You	$5,005,000	$47,008,000
9	The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything	$4,418,785	$4,418,785
10	Atonement	$4,299,670	$25,208,460
11	Charlie Wilson's War	$4,274,200	$59,498,270
12	Sweeney Todd	$3,402,000	$44,070,000

All Numbers Courtesy of Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc.

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Friday Estimates: Not Kickin' The Bucket Just Yet

     Friday Numbers are in, and it looks like I underestimated the power of two old-school box office heavyweights.  The Bucket List had a great Friday with $6.4 million, which should give the Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson comedy a very respectable $19 million weekend, which is good for #1.  

     As for the rest of the openers, after a $6.2 million Friday, First Sunday looks headed for my prediction with $17 million through Sunday.  The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything had a poor start, earning just $1.1 million on its first day.  The swashbuckling vegetable film (there's a phrase I never thought I'd use...) should finish up with just about $4 million.  And in news that totally delights me, Uwe Boll's latest film, In The Name Of The King: A Dungeon Siege Tale, is flopping!  It earned just under $1 million on Friday, which should give it a horrible $2.8 million weekend and a spot outside the Top 12.  Moviegoers, I salute you.

Friday Estimates for January 11

1. The Bucket List - $6.4 million

2. First Sunday - $6.2 million

3. Juno - $4.6 million

4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $3.3 million

5. I Am Legend - $2.6 million

6. One Missed Call - $2.2 million

7. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $2 million

8. P.S. I Love You - $1.6 million

9. Charlie Wilson's War - $1.4 million

10. Atonement - $1.3 million

11. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything - $1.1 million

12. Sweeney Todd - $1 million

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Weekend Preview: Will First Sunday Steal Box Office Crown?

Traditionally thought of as a dumping ground for Hollywood's poorest titles, January is typically home to movies that studios have very little hope for. In terms of box office revenue, only September can rival the bad receipts that movies see in January, and this year, things won't be too much different. Even with four openers, the box office will continue to rely on strong holdovers to keep 2008 ahead of last year.

I'm going to go slightly against the grain of most box office analysts this week, and predict that First Sunday will take the box office crown. Starring Ice Cube, Katt Williams, and SNL alum Tracy Morgan, First Sunday is a black church comedy (I say "black" both because of the African American cast, and its crime theme) that follows two men as they attempt to rob their church. It will have playability among black and (to a lesser extent) churchgoing audiences, which have proven to be very lucrative with the success of Tyler Perry. January has proven to be a very good time to release movies aimed at black audiences: In 2006, Big Momma's House 2 opened with $27.7 million, and on this very weekend in 2007, Stomp The Yard earned a smashing $21.8 million. Not surprisingly, reviews are terrible, but they're kind of a non-factor for a film like this. ScreenGems' First Sunday launches into 2,213 theaters on Friday, and it might steal about $17 million over the weekend.

The Bucket List is not technically a new opener, but since it was only playing in 16 theaters last weekend, I'm going to count it as one. The story of two old men trying fulfill their life's wishes before they die, The Bucket List stars screen legends Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. Movies with two A-list, male actors usually do very well at the box office (see The Prestige, American Gangster, 3:10 To Yuma), but The Bucket List lacks an exciting punch, so its success will be more limited. This will play to a much older audience, who definitely read reviews, and the lackluster critical reception will hurt its chances at success. Still, the Warner Brothers feature with very likable leads is playing in a huge 2,895 theaters, and its sheer visibility will help it earn about $11.5 million over the weekend.

If you're not an Evangelical Christian, you may not have heard of VeggieTales, a popular Christian-themed franchise that feature animated vegetables like Larry the Cucumber and Bob the Tomato. This weekend, VeggieTales presents The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything, the second feature film after 2002's Jonah, which was a modest success ($25.5 million) for such a small movie. Five years later, The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything looks to match Jonah's success at best. Outside of its target audience, there has been literally no advertising for this film, which is strange to me, because with a family friendly story, it does have some crossover appeal. Also, it has the best reviews of the weekend, though that's not saying much. Out in 1,336 theaters, the Universal kiddie-flick should just about match its predecessor's numbers with a $6.5 million weekend.

The final new film of the weekend is In The Name Of The King: A Dungeon Siege Tale. First off, does every film have to have a colon in the title these days? Between Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem, National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, and Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, I don't know how many more punctuated titles I can take! Second, if you read my previous post about Uwe Boll, you know how unexcited I am for this video game adaptation starring the normally enjoyable Jason Statham. In The Name Of The King was originally supposed to debut in 2,500 theaters this weekend, but at some point during the week, 900 theater owners bailed out and decided not to play the film, which is a bad sign, and the Freestyle Releasing film was not screened for critics, which also does not bode well for it. Out in 1,605 theaters, Uwe Boll's latest assault on the film industry might earn a truly terrible $3.5 million, giving it a spot outside the Top 12.

First Sunday's primary competition for the top spot comes from Juno. The indie comedy has enjoyed the #1 position for the entire week, and it expands even further this weekend into 2,448 theaters. It's per theater average will dip a bit from last week's phenomenal $8,239, but it should still be very strong. A $15 million weekend would give Juno a sensational $71 million overall.

The big three holiday films should continue to perform solidly. National Treasure: Book of Secrets might pull in $11 million over the next three days, for a $187 million total. I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks should each pull in about $9 million, for totals of $240 million and $189 million, respectively. Behaving oppositely, One Missed Call should crumble down to about $5.5 million, for a $20 million total.

Finally, this weekend Atonement boosts its theater count to 950, and a $6 million weekend might result, which would give the period piece just over $26 million overall. The Kite Runner and the Spanish film The Orphanage each expand into about 700 theaters, and while they won't make the Top 12 this weekend, each could end up with some solid business in the weeks to come if they can win some awards.

Predicted Top Twelve for January 11-13

1. First Sunday - $17 million

2. Juno - $15 million

3. The Bucket List - $11.5 million

4. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $11 million

5. I Am Legend - $9 million

6. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $9 million

7. The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything - $6.5 million

8. Atonement - $6 million

9. P.S. I Love You - $5.8 million

10. Charlie Wilson's War - $5.5 million

11. The Water Horse - $4 million

12. Sweeney Todd - $3.7 million

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The Strange, Notorious Career of Uwe Boll (UPDATED)

     Famous for all the wrong reasons, German director Uwe Boll is one of the most recognized, least respected people in the film industry.  Boll specializes in making terrible video game movies that bomb at the box office, and the mere mention of his name is enough to make many people's blood boil.  Mind you, I've only had to sit through one of his films, but I can assure you, it was the absolute worst movie I have ever seen in my entire life.  I wanted to leave the theater.  I wanted to tear the screen.  I wanted to strangle every crew member involved in its production.  There was literally not one redeeming quality about the film.  And no, I'm not engaging in hyperbole.

     What astounds me most about Uwe Boll's career is the fact that studio heads keep throwing money at the man, allowing him to make these lame video game adaptations!  Why would they do this?!  Every movie Boll has directed has been unanimously trashed by critics (check out the boxing match Boll staged in order to confront his biggest critic!), and has performed wretchedly at the box office.  Take a look at the disturbing trend between his films' budgets and their box office receipts:

House of the Dead (2003)

Production Budget: $12 million

Final Gross: $10.2 million

Reviews: 10% fresh

With a net $2 million loss, this is Uwe Boll's most successful film to date....

Alone In The Dark (2005)

Production Budget: $20 million

Final Gross: $5.2 million

Reviews: 1% fresh

This is the one I had to watch.  It's truly indescribable how bad it really is.  I mean, Tara Reid plays a paleontologist!  That should say enough.

BloodRayne (2006)

Production Budget: $25 million

Final Gross: $2.4 million

Reviews: 4% fresh

There are two direct-to-DVD sequels in the works.... I'm not kidding.

In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale (2008)

Production Budget: $60 million(!)

Final Gross: ???

Reviews: none yet...

This will not make back its $60 million budget.  Never.

     There you have it.  If you're confused, so am I.  Why Uwe Boll, who is widely considered the worst living film maker, keeps getting directing gigs with bigger budgets is completely beyond me.  Every one of his ventures has made less money that its predecessor, and if a studio is foolish enough to let him make one of their movies, then that studio deserves to to lose a hefty sum. 

UPDATE: Thanks to an influx of economics-wise readers from Marginal Revolution, it has come to my attention that Uwe Boll funds his films through private German investors, and he uses a tax shelter to help finance his projects.  Says Boll, "Maybe you know it, but it's not so easy to finance movies in total.  And the reason I am able to do these kinds of movies is I have a tax shelter fund in Germany, and if you invest a movie in Germany you get basically fifty percent back from the government."  Thanks for the correction, guys- I guess I got carried away bashing him... This doesn't change the fact that Boll's movies are getting more expensive to make, but less profitable.  Also, American studios still must pay distribution and advertising fees, which are hefty costs for such box office bombs.  Furthermore, don't German investors have something better to do with their money?!

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Writers Strike Update: Golden Globes Cancelled!

     In case you've been living under a rock lately, you know that the Writers Guild of America (WGA) is currently on strike.  Seeking their fair share of profits on all revenue-generating media, the WGA has stuck to the pickets lines for about nine weeks, putting them at odds with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP).  From the very beginning of the strike, the public has come to the side of the writers, but it isn't until recently that people have started to become downright outraged at the AMPTP.  Everyone wants this strike to end, and fortunately (for the writers and crews, not us) on January 7, 2008, the WGA won a major battle in the ongoing war with the producers- the Golden Globes ceremony was cancelled.

     This news comes after the announcement that members of the Screen Actors Guild refuse to cross the picket lines to attend the Golden Globes.  Seeing as pretty much every star in Hollywood is a member of the SAG, and the whole reason people watch the ceremony is to see their favorite stars, the show was wisely cancelled.  NBC (who really could have used some good ratings...) will instead air a one-hour news conference that will announce the winners.  See a list of nominees here.

     This is great news for the writers.  The cancellation will not only create fear that the all-important Academy Awards will be cancelled, it is sure to cause even more uproar against the AMPTP and bring the strike one step closer to an end.  Personally, I'm a bit sad to see the Golden Globes cancelled.  They're infinitely less pretentious more enjoyable than the Academy Awards, but I'm perfectly happy to give them up if it helps out out the thousands of writers and crew members who are presently out of work.  What do you all think?  Happy?  Sad?  Bitter?  Give your opinion in the comments below.

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Weekend Fix: Treasure Threepeats, Juno Exceeds Expectations

     The first weekend of 2008 got the year off to good start, continuing the solid weekend performances that the box office has had for the last three weeks.  Of course, the holidays are pretty much over now, and the Top 12's box office fell an expected 27% from last weekend, but with only one new film opening, the Top 12 films still managed to gross a collective $123.9 million, which represents a great 19% increase over the first weekend of last year.

     For the third weekend in a row, National Treasure: Book of Secrets held the top spot.  The Nicholas Cage flick earned $20.2 million this weekend, off 43% from last weekend.  Playing in a whopping 3,762 theaters, Disney's Da Vinci Code rip-off had a pretty good $5,376 venue average.  Probably because of its weak reviews and rehashed story, Book of Secrets hasn't held up as well as the original National Treasure did, but it will still end up outgrossing its predecessor (I'm seeing a final gross somewhere around $220 million).  After three weekends, National Treasure: Book of Secrets has earned a nice $171 million.

     I Am Legend, Warner Brothers' apocalyptic thriller starring Will Smith, continued to utterly dominate at the box office.  In its fourth weekend, the sci-fi action movie earned $16.4 million, a 40% drop from last weekend.  After its huge $77 million opening, I Am Legend has been quite leggy, and by next weekend, it will have tripled its opening.  In its fourth weekend, it had a sturdy $4,490 per theater average, which is great for a film of its age.  In 24 days it has grossed a phenomenal $228.7 million.

     The third place film is the real success story of the weekend.  Juno, which expanded into 1,925 theaters this weekend, earned a stunning $16.2 million over the past three days.  Word of mouth has propelled this indie comedy to its incredible level of success, and with an amazing $8,429 per theater average, Juno is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon (Vote on the poll to the right that asks if Juno can break $100 million).  Although many awards voters won't admit it, a film's box office definitely matters when it comes to choosing award winners, and Juno's setting itself up for some major victories in the coming months.  After five weeks Fox Searchlight's feature has earned $52 million.

     Finally out of the top three, Alvin and the Chipmunks fell 45% this weekend to $16 million.  The rodent comedy had a $4,622 venue average, and it has earned $176.7 million overall.  The terribly reviewed children's movie just won't die!  Mark my words, if the Writers Guild of America weren't on strike right now, Fox would already be in the stages of preproduction for a sequel, and with $200 million right around the corner, a new installment of Alvin will be cranked out as soon as possible.

     One Missed Call, the weekend's sole opening film, debuted to an alright $13.5 million.  The Warner Brothers horror film, which could win an award for not receiving a single positive review, had a very front-loaded weekend.  With a $5.2 million Friday, One Missed Call could only achieve a 2.6 internal multiplier, which implies that it will have very short legs at the box office.  It had an okay $6,038 per theater average, which is not terrible, but certainly nothing special, and I'm guessing that One Missed Call will probably finish its run with a bad $30 million.  No one's going to miss this one...

     In sixth place, Charlie Wilson's War kept on redeeming its slow start.  Down 32%, Universal's Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts political comedy grossed $8.2 million this weekend, giving it a fairly small $3,155 venue average.  Overall, Charlie Wilson's War has grossed $52.6 million, and while this is lower than one would expect given the pedigree of its stars, it's very good considering how poorly the film opened.  It could end with about $70-80 million overall.

     P.S. I Love You fell a tiny 14% to $8 million, as it continued its inexplicable endurance at the box office.  With a venue average of $3,244, P.S. I Love You isn't breaking any records, but it is notable that the Warner Brothers romantic comedy did better in its third weekend than it did in its opening.  I guess word-of-mouth is good among teenage girls, who just love to cry at the movies.  In three weeks, Hilary Swank's foray into female roles has earned a not-too-shabby $39.4 million.

     The Water Horse was back in eighth place this weekend.  The children's fantasy has been utterly overlooked, and was down 31% this weekend, for a $6.3 million gross, and a low $2,269 per theater average.  In total, Sony's The Water Horse has splashed up a disappointing $30.9 million after three weeks.

     Sweeney Todd looks to be following a very similar trajectory to Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, which finished up with $53 million.  This weekend, Dreamworks/Paramount's slasher musical, Sweeney Todd, found another $5.4 million, a 34% drop.  It was a good decision to keep the theater count low on this one, as it still has a fairly good $4,323 venue average in its third weekend.  This should keep in theaters a while longer, and with a few awards, Sweeney Todd could become a bona fide success.  We'll have to wait and see.  For now, the musical gorefest will have to live with its $38.5 million total.

     Taking a page out of Juno's book, Atonement also had a very successful expansion this weekend.  Moving into 583 theaters, Atonement increased 64% to $5.1 million.  Its per theater average of $8,790 was the best in the Top 12, which should merit further expansions in the future.  It remains to be seen whether Atonement can outgross director Joe Wright's previous picture, Pride and Prejudice, which earned $39 million, but I'm thinking it should have no trouble doing so.  Thus far, the Focus Features film has made $19.2 million

     Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem deteriorated in its second weekend, dropping 58% to $4.3 million, proving that everyone who really wanted to see this has already done so.  The weekend gross gave Fox's mindless action movie a wretched $1,624 venue average, and assured that it will disappear from theaters quickly.  So far, AVP:R has grosses $30.5 million, with about a third of that coming from its opening day alone.

     Rounding out the Top 12 is Denzel Washington's The Great Debaters, which earned $4.2 million over the weekend frame.  The small MGM drama had an okay $3,291 per theater average.  With $22 million overall, The Great Debaters hasn't performed spectacularly, but its done pretty well for a small film that had absolutely zero buzz going for it.  A few awards could help its cause tremendously.

     Next weekend brings four new films: the old-people laugher, The Bucket List, the Veggie Tales production, The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything, criminal comedy, First Sunday, and Uwe Boll's latest (awful) video game adaptation, In The Name Of The King.  At this point, none seem to have real breakout potential, and the box office may be relying on holdovers for yet another week.  Check back next week for the Weekend Preview.

Top 12 for January 4-6

#	Movie Title	Weekend Gross	Total
1	National Treasure: Book of Secrets	$20,225,000	$171,033,000
2	I Am Legend	$16,380,000	$228,718,000
3	Juno	$16,225,000	$52,031,842
4	Alvin and the Chipmunks	$16,000,000	$176,737,736
5	One Missed Call	$13,525,000	$13,525,000
6	Charlie Wilson's War	$8,184,070	$52,630,360
7	P.S. I Love You	$8,015,000	$39,383,000
8	The Water Horse	$6,300,000	$30,893,000
9	Sweeney Todd	$5,400,000	$38,472,000
10	Atonement	$5,124,297	$19,215,527
11	Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem	$4,250,000	$36,820,839
12	The Great Debaters	$4,245,000	$22,007,817

All Numbers Courtesy of Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc.

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Friday Estimates: Not Everyone Misses One Missed Call

     Well, it looks like the holidays are coming to an end. While the box office isn't behaving especially poorly, everything except Juno, Atonement, and (based on low expectations) One Missed Call is just average or a little bit underwhelming.
     National Treasure: Book of Secrets will lead for the third weekend in a row, and on Friday the treasure-hunters found $6.4 million. A $19 million weekend seems likely.
     One Missed Call and I Am Legend both pulled in $5.2 million on Friday, but they should finish about $3 million apart. One Missed Call, which now has some shockingly bad reviews, was marketed almost exclusively to teens.  It will be very front-loaded should finish with $13 million. I Am Legend, which has already proven its longevity, will pull in a much better $16 million.
     Juno continued to exceed its buzz, earning a great $5.2 million on Friday. The indie comedy can't seem to do anything wrong during its run, and even in almost 2,000 theaters, it will have a very good per theater average of about $7,500! Look for a $15 million weekend.     Atonement also fared well in it expansion, pulling in a solid $1.5 million yesterday. It should slightly exceed my prediction of $4.2 million, setting itself up for a truckload of awards.
     Everything else performed pretty much as expected, so there's not much to report, but to see the final weekend grosses, check back in tomorrow for the Weekend Fix.

Friday Estimates for January 4
1. National Treasure: Book of Secrets - $6.4 million
2. I Am Legend - $5.2 million
3. One Missed Call - $5.2 million
4. Juno - $5.2 million
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks - $4.6 million
6. P.S. I Love You - $2.6 million
7. Charlie Wilson's War - $2.5
8. The Water Horse - $1.9 million
9. Sweeney Todd - $1.8 million
10. Atonement - $1.5 million
11. Alien Vs. Predator - $1.4 million
12. The Great Debaters - $1.2 million

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